Frequently asked questions

Football Intelligence is a free AI-powered football prediction platform that uses the Poisson distribution model and Claude Sonnet AI to generate match probabilities, expected goals, and value bet recommendations across 10+ European leagues.

It includes a Kelly Criterion calculator for optimal bet sizing and a €1000 DEMO bankroll to practise strategies without financial risk.

Yes. The Free plan includes:

• 1 featured prediction daily
• 3 SportGPT queries per day
• League standings and live scores
• €1000 DEMO bankroll
• No credit card required

PRO ($4.99/month) and Elite ($14.99/month) unlock unlimited predictions, the live Value Calculator with 40+ bookmaker odds, full SportGPT access, and pick history tracking.

The Poisson model assigns each team an attack strength (goals scored ÷ league average) and a defensive record (goals conceded ÷ league average). Combined with home advantage, these produce two lambda values — the expected goals for each side.

The Poisson formula P(k) = (λ^k × e^−λ) / k! generates a full 8×8 scoreline probability matrix, from which all market probabilities (1X2, BTTS, Over/Under, Asian handicap) are derived. Full methodology →

Value betting means placing bets where the bookmaker's implied probability is lower than the true probability of an outcome.

Example: if our Poisson model gives a team a 50% chance to win but the bookmaker offers odds of 2.20 (implying 45.5%), there is a +9.9% value edge.

Value betting is a mathematically sound approach — but not a guarantee of profit. It is only +EV if your probability estimates are genuinely more accurate than the bookmaker's; a mis-estimated edge compounds losses just as a real edge compounds gains. Treat it as disciplined analysis, not a winning system. Full value betting guide →

The Kelly Criterion is a formula for optimal bankroll management:

Kelly% = (odds × model_probability − 1) ÷ (odds − 1)

With a €1000 bankroll and a calculated Kelly of 8%, your stake is €80. We display Kelly on every AI pick.

Use Half-Kelly (50% of the calculated stake) to reduce variance from model uncertainty. Never bet more than the Kelly suggests — overbetting leads to bankroll ruin even with a genuine edge.

Every pick goes through a data-driven classifier built from 380+ historical settled bets. The classifier assigns one of three tiers based on the (market type × odds band) combination:

Low   Over 2.5 / BTTS / Win at odds 1.50–1.85. Highest historical win rate (~63%), tightest variance.

Medium   Over 2.5 / BTTS / Win at odds 1.85–2.10. Solid edge with moderate variance (~50% WR).

High   Win or Draw at odds 3.00–3.50. Long-odds plays — lower hit-rate, higher payout.

Bands that historically lost money (Win at 2.10–3.00, Win at 3.50+, Over 3.5 goals, etc.) are rejected by the algorithm and never published. The headline Low+Medium ROI shown publicly excludes the speculative High tier. Full details on the methodology page.

• Premier League (England)
• La Liga (Spain)
• Serie A (Italy)
• Bundesliga (Germany)
• Ligue 1 (France)
• Champions League and Europa League
• Eredivisie (Netherlands)
• Primeira Liga (Portugal)
• Select cup competitions

We add new leagues regularly — request your league via support email.

Statistical models are probability tools, not crystal balls. Our Poisson model historically calibrates within roughly ±2% of actual outcome frequencies on settled matches.

The platform's edge is finding spots where the bookmaker's odds significantly diverge from the model's fair odds (edges of 3% or higher). On individual matches results vary; across hundreds of bets, positive-EV picks generate compound returns.

Important. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

SportGPT is an AI football analyst built on Claude Sonnet 4.6 (Anthropic). Ask it any question in plain English:

• "Find me the best value bet today"
• "Build a 3-match accumulator with low risk"
• "Compare Arsenal vs Brighton head-to-head"
• "What's the highest BTTS probability tonight?"

Free: 2 queries/day·PRO: 15/day·Elite: 40/day.

No. Football Intelligence is purely an analytical and informational tool. We do not accept monetary bets, do not operate as a bookmaker, and are not a party to any betting transaction.

We display predictions and value edges; placing actual bets is your decision and responsibility, done through your own licensed bookmaker.

Cancel any time via the Stripe customer portal — the link is in your subscription confirmation email. PRO and Elite access remains active until the end of the paid period.

No questions asked, no retention pressure.

Generally no, due to the immediate-access nature of the digital service. Exceptions:

• Technical unavailability exceeding 48 hours within a billing cycle
• Duplicate billing errors

Email hello@footballinteligence.com within 7 days for refund requests. Full policy in the terms of service.

Yes. We take data security seriously:

• Passwords hashed with bcrypt (industry standard, never stored in plaintext)
• All traffic uses HTTPS/TLS
• We do not use Google Analytics or third-party tracking cookies
• Payment data is handled exclusively by Stripe (PCI DSS Level 1)
• We are GDPR compliant

Full privacy policy →

Every new account receives a €1000 virtual bankroll. Use it to practise placing AI-recommended bets, see how the Kelly stake performs, and track your simulated ROI over time — all without risking real money.

The DEMO updates automatically as bets settle. A weekly +$100 refill keeps the experimentation going.

PRO ($4.99/month):

• Unlimited AI predictions
• Value Calculator (40+ bookmaker odds)
• 15 SportGPT queries/day
• Pick history + ROI tracking

Elite ($14.99/month) — everything in PRO, plus:

• 40 SportGPT queries/day
• Priority AI responses & extended context
• Telegram pick alerts
• Real-money bankroll tracking
• Customisable risk filters

Yes — the platform is accessible globally. You must be 18 or older.

Bet placement responsibility lies with you according to your local jurisdiction. We do not promote, accept, or facilitate bets in any region. Predictions are informational analytical content.