15 answers covering predictions, value betting, plans & the Poisson model
Football Intelligence is a free AI-powered football prediction platform that uses the Poisson distribution model and Claude Sonnet AI to generate match probabilities, expected goals (xG), and value bet recommendations across 10+ European leagues.
It also includes a Kelly Criterion calculator for optimal bet sizing and a $1,000 DEMO bankroll to practise strategies without financial risk.
Yes. The Free plan gives you:
The PRO (€14.99/month) and Elite (€29.99/month) plans unlock unlimited predictions, the live Value Calculator with 40+ bookmaker odds, full SportGPT access, and pick history tracking.
The Poisson model assigns each team an attack strength (goals scored ÷ league average) and a defensive record (goals conceded ÷ league average). Combined with home advantage, these produce two lambda values — the expected goals for each side.
The Poisson formula P(k) = (λ^k × e^−λ) / k! then generates a full 8×8 scoreline probability matrix, from which all market probabilities (1X2, BTTS, Over/Under, Asian handicap) are derived.
This is the same statistical framework professional quants use in sports betting markets. Read the full methodology →
Value betting means placing bets where the bookmaker's implied probability is lower than the true probability of an outcome.
Example: if our Poisson model gives a team a 50% chance to win but the bookmaker offers odds of 2.20 (implying only 45.5%), there is a +9.9% value edge.
Over a large sample of positive-EV bets, value betting generates long-term profit regardless of short-term variance. It is the only mathematically proven long-term winning betting strategy. Full Value Betting Guide →
The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula for optimal bankroll management:
Kelly% = (odds × model_probability − 1) ÷ (odds − 1)
With a $1,000 bankroll and a calculated Kelly of 8%, your stake should be $80. Football Intelligence displays the Kelly stake on every AI pick.
We recommend Half-Kelly (50% of the calculated stake) to reduce variance from model uncertainty. Never bet more than the Kelly suggests — overbetting leads to bankroll ruin even with a genuine edge.
Every pick goes through a data-driven classifier built from 380+ historical settled bets. The classifier assigns one of three tiers based on the (market type × odds band) combination:
Bands historically losing money (Win @ 2.10–3.00, Win @ 3.50+, Over 3.5 goals, etc.) are rejected by the algorithm and never published. The headline Low+Medium ROI shown publicly excludes the speculative HIGH tier. Full details on methodology page §9.5.
We're continually adding new leagues — request your league via support email.
Statistical models are probability tools, not crystal balls. Our Poisson model historically calibrates within ±2% of actual outcome frequencies on settled matches.
The platform's edge is finding spots where the bookmaker's odds significantly diverge from the model's fair odds (value edges of 3% or higher). On individual matches, results vary; over hundreds of bets, positive-EV picks generate compound returns.
Important: past performance does not guarantee future results. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
SportGPT is an AI football analyst built on Claude Sonnet 4.6 (Anthropic). Ask it any question about football statistics, betting analysis, or specific matches in plain English:
Free users: 2 queries/day · PRO: 15/day · Elite: 40/day.
No. Football Intelligence is purely an analytical and informational tool. We do not accept monetary bets, do not operate as a bookmaker, and are not a party to any betting transaction.
We display predictions and value edges; placing actual bets is your decision and responsibility, done through your own licensed bookmaker.
You can cancel at any time via the Stripe customer portal — the link is in your subscription confirmation email. PRO and Elite access remains active until the end of the paid period.
No questions asked, no retention pressure.
Generally no, due to the immediate-access nature of the digital service. Exceptions are made for:
Email karolbalucki1402@gmail.com within 7 days for refund requests. Full policy in the Terms of Service.
Yes. We take data security seriously:
Read the full Privacy Policy →
Every new account receives a $1,000 virtual bankroll. Use it to practise placing AI-recommended bets, see how the Kelly stake performs, and track your simulated ROI over time — all without risking real money.
The DEMO updates automatically as bets settle. A weekly +$100 refill keeps the experimentation going.
PRO (€14.99/mo):
Elite (€29.99/mo) — everything in PRO, plus:
Yes — the platform is accessible globally. You must be 18 or older.
Bet placement responsibility lies with you according to your local jurisdiction. We do not promote, accept, or facilitate bets in any region. Predictions are informational analytical content.
Free plan, no credit card. 5 AI predictions per day + $1,000 DEMO bankroll.
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