UEFA Nations League AI Predictions
Group-stage probabilities, Poisson model expected goals, and match analysis for the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League
UEFA Nations League 2026-27
League A · B · C · D
September 2026 — June 2027 · 54 UEFA nations · 4 leagues · 16 groups
Group stage — all 16 groups
The UEFA Nations League is contested across four leagues (A, B, C, D). Each league contains four groups of four teams. The top team in each League A group advances to the Final Four. Teams finishing last in their group are relegated to the league below.
League A — Top tier (16 nations)
| Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | - | - | - | - | - |
| Portugal | - | - | - | - | - |
| Spain | - | - | - | - | - |
| Italy | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | - | - | - | - | - |
| Netherlands | - | - | - | - | - |
| Croatia | - | - | - | - | - |
| Denmark | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | - | - | - | - | - |
| Belgium | - | - | - | - | - |
| Switzerland | - | - | - | - | - |
| Hungary | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
League B — Second tier (16 nations)
| Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Czech Republic | - | - | - | - | - |
| Turkey | - | - | - | - | - |
| Austria | - | - | - | - | - |
| Israel | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hungary | - | - | - | - | - |
| Scotland | - | - | - | - | - |
| Serbia | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
League C — Third tier (16 nations)
| Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albania | - | - | - | - | - |
| Norway | - | - | - | - | - |
| Finland | - | - | - | - | - |
| Slovenia | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iceland | - | - | - | - | - |
| Slovakia | - | - | - | - | - |
| Romania | - | - | - | - | - |
| Montenegro | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
League D — Fourth tier (16 nations)
| Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kosovo | - | - | - | - | - |
| Latvia | - | - | - | - | - |
| Faroe Islands | - | - | - | - | - |
| Andorra | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | - | - | - | - | - |
| Malta | - | - | - | - | - |
| Gibraltar | - | - | - | - | - |
| San Marino | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liechtenstein | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
Indicative — based on 2024-25 Nations League final standings. Official 2026-27 draw pending (expected Q3 2026). Group compositions update automatically once UEFA confirms assignments.
AI match predictions
Where match data is available from the apifootball feed (league_id=633), the Poisson model generates win/draw/loss probabilities and expected goals (lambda). Predictions will populate automatically once the 2026-27 group stage schedule is confirmed in the data feed. Tournament begins September 2026.
Match data loading…
Predictions will appear here once Nations League fixtures are confirmed in the live data feed. Check back from September 2026.
How the AI model works for Nations League predictions
Football Intelligence uses the Poisson distribution model to generate match probabilities. For each match it calculates:
- Lambda home / Lambda away — expected goals for each side, derived from attack and defensive ratings relative to international competition averages.
- Win / Draw / Loss probabilities — derived from the full 8x8 scoreline matrix.
- BTTS probability — both teams to score, from the marginal goal distributions.
- Most likely scoreline — the individual scoreline with the highest probability mass.
Full methodology is published at footballinteligence.com/methodology.
How the Nations League works
The UEFA Nations League is contested across four league tiers — A, B, C, and D — with 54 UEFA member nations divided into groups of four. Each group plays a home-and-away round robin (six matches per group). The tournament runs in September and October of the opening year, with a March playoff window for promotion/relegation deciders.
League A group winners (four teams) advance to the Final Four, a mini-tournament hosted by one of the group winners. The Final Four consists of two semi-finals and a final, producing the Nations League champion. Nations finishing last in their group are relegated to the league below; top finishers in leagues B, C, and D earn promotion.
Unlike the World Cup or Euros, the Nations League has no single-elimination bracket until the Final Four. Every match in the group stage matters for promotion, relegation, and potential UEFA playoff seeding for major tournaments.