Tournament analysis
World Cup 2026 AI Predictions
Group stage probabilities, Poisson model expected goals, and match analysis for the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Informational only. All match predictions on this page are generated by a Poisson distribution model trained primarily on club football data. International competition data is sparse and national-team squad dynamics differ significantly from club football. These probabilities are analytical outputs only. This is not betting advice. No value percentages, Kelly stakes, or risk tiers are shown for World Cup matches. 18+ | Gamble responsibly.
FIFA World Cup 2026
USA · Canada · Mexico
11 June — 19 July 2026 · 48 teams · 12 groups · 104 matches
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Group stage — all 12 groups
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is the first edition with 48 teams across 12 groups of four. The top two from each group plus eight best third-placed sides advance to a round of 32.
| Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|
| United States | - | - | - | - | - |
| Panama | - | - | - | - | - |
| Bolivia | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|
| Mexico | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|
| Canada | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|
| France | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|
| Brazil | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|
| Germany | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|
| Argentina | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|
| Spain | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|
| England | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|
| Portugal | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|
| Netherlands | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|
| Morocco | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
| TBD | - | - | - | - | - |
Group standings update dynamically from live data once the tournament begins (11 June 2026). Full draw confirmation pending FIFA official announcement. Seeded sides shown per FIFA World Ranking October 2025.
AI match predictions
Where match data is available from the apifootball feed (league_id=28), the Poisson model generates win/draw/loss probabilities and expected goals (lambda). Predictions will populate here automatically once the tournament schedule is confirmed in the data feed. Tournament begins 11 June 2026.
Match data loading…
Predictions will appear here once World Cup fixtures are confirmed in the live data feed. Check back from 11 June 2026.
Knockout bracket
Round of 32 through to the Final. Slots populate as group stage results are confirmed.
| Round of 32 |
Round of 16 |
Quarter-finals |
Semi-finals |
Final (19 Jul) |
| 1A vs 3D/E/F |
Winner R32-1 |
Winner R16-1 |
Winner QF-1 |
TBD |
| 2C vs 2D |
| 1C vs 3A/B/F |
Winner R32-2 |
| 1B vs 3A/C/D |
| 1E vs 3A/B/C |
Winner R32-3 |
Winner R16-2 |
| 1D vs 2E |
| 1F vs 3C/D/E |
Winner R32-4 |
| 2A vs 2B |
| 1G vs 3H/I/J |
Winner R32-5 |
Winner R16-3 |
Winner QF-2 |
| 2F vs 2I |
| 1H vs 3G/J/K |
Winner R32-6 |
| 1I vs 3G/H/L |
| 1J vs 2K |
Winner R32-7 |
Winner R16-4 |
| 1K vs 3I/J/L |
| 1L vs 2J |
Winner R32-8 |
| 2H vs 2L |
Bracket slots follow FIFA's official matchup formula for 12-group World Cup. Third-place pairings (3A/B/C etc.) are determined by the best-performing third-placed sides across all groups.
How the AI model works for World Cup predictions
Football Intelligence uses the Poisson distribution model to generate match probabilities. For each match it calculates:
- Lambda home / Lambda away — expected goals for each side, derived from attack and defensive ratings relative to international competition averages.
- Win / Draw / Loss probabilities — derived from the full 8x8 scoreline matrix.
- BTTS probability — both teams to score, from the marginal goal distributions.
- Most likely scoreline — the individual scoreline with the highest probability mass.
Full methodology is published at footballinteligence.com/methodology.
Important limitation for international football. The Poisson model is calibrated on club football seasons with hundreds of matches per team per year. National teams play far fewer competitive fixtures (typically 10-20 per year), making statistical ratings less stable. Lambda values for international matches carry substantially higher uncertainty than for Premier League or Champions League predictions. Treat World Cup probabilities as indicative, not precise.
