About Football Intelligence
Who builds it, how it works, how it is paid for
Football Intelligence is a football statistics and analysis tool. It is not a bookmaker, it takes no bets, and it does not sell tips. 18+ | Not financial advice.
Who is behind it
Football Intelligence is built and run by Karol, a solo founder based in Poland. There is no editorial team and no panel of analysts: the model, the site and the support inbox are one person's work. Claude (Anthropic) is used for the plain-language match commentary and the SportGPT chat; it does not set the probabilities.
How the model works
Each team gets attack and defence ratings from historical results, which turn into expected goals for a fixture. A Poisson (Dixon-Coles) model converts those into a scoreline probability matrix, and from it win/draw/loss, Over/Under and BTTS probabilities and fair odds. Where live bookmaker odds are available (paid plans), the gap between the model price and the market is shown as a value percentage. That percentage is a model estimate, not a measured advantage. The full maths is on the methodology page, and you can try the model yourself in the free Poisson calculator.
How it is funded
Football Intelligence is paid for by user subscriptions (PRO and Elite plans, billed through Stripe) and nothing else. The site carries no bookmaker affiliate links and takes no commission from bookmakers, so there is no financial reason for it to push you toward any particular bookmaker or bet. Plans and prices are on the app's Plans page and in the FAQ.
Track record
We publish the measured record, including the parts that do not flatter the model. The flat-stake record is statistically indistinguishable from break-even, and the live figure is on the prediction accuracy page. The model has not been shown to beat the bookmaker market, and the record is being repaired after a settlement bug affected about 70 picks. Details and updates are on the prediction accuracy page.
Responsible gambling
Predictions are statistical estimates, not guarantees, and betting can lose money. Only bet what you can afford to lose. If gambling is causing you harm, contact BeGambleAware.org, GamCare.org.uk or GamblingTherapy.org.
Contact
Questions, corrections or support: footballinteligenceai@gmail.com, or see the contact page.