AEK Athens vs Real Madrid prediction
Kick-off ·UEFA Champions League
These are statistical model estimates, not tips and not a guarantee of any result. We have not shown that the model beats the bookmaker market (no proven edge). 18+ | Not financial advice.
Summary
AEK Athens are the model's slight favourites at home at 54%, with Real Madrid at 18% and the draw at 28%. The goals model points to a balanced goals line, with Over 2.5 at 46% on about 2.5 expected goals. The most likely single scoreline is 1:0 at 14%, which shows how thinly probability spreads in one match.
Model probabilities
| Market | Probability |
|---|---|
| AEK Athens win | 54.5% |
| Draw | 27.5% |
| Real Madrid win | 18.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.7% |
| Both teams to score | 48.0% |
Expected goals from the model: AEK Athens 1.647, Real Madrid 0.858. Probabilities come from a Poisson goal model; see how the model works.
Most likely scorelines
- 1:0 — 13.5%
- 1:1 — 11.5%
- 2:0 — 11.1%
Form and table context
AEK Athens are 29th in their domestic league with 3 points from 3 games; Real Madrid are 4th in their domestic league with 9 points from 3 games.
How far to trust this
One match is a very small sample. Even a well-calibrated model is wrong about individual games most of the time, and ours has not been shown to be better than bookmaker prices. Our measured results, including losses, are on the prediction accuracy page and every settled pick is in the public pick log.
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Model output last changed 2026-11-01 22:24 UTC. All upcoming match predictions