Alverca vs Casa Pia prediction
Kick-off ·Primeira Liga
These are statistical model estimates, not tips and not a guarantee of any result. We have not shown that the model beats the bookmaker market (no proven edge). 18+ | Not financial advice.
Summary
A draw is the single most likely result at 39%, ahead of a home win (23%) and an away win (38%). The goals model points to a tighter game: Over 2.5 goals is rated at only 21% on about 1.6 expected goals, while both teams scoring is rated below even (30%). The most likely single scoreline is 0:0 at 21%, which shows how thinly probability spreads in one match.
Model probabilities
| Market | Probability |
|---|---|
| Alverca win | 23.4% |
| Draw | 38.6% |
| Casa Pia win | 38.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20.7% |
| Both teams to score | 30.3% |
Expected goals from the model: Alverca 0.656, Casa Pia 0.908. Probabilities come from a Poisson goal model; see how the model works.
Most likely scorelines
- 0:0 — 20.9%
- 0:1 — 19.0%
- 1:0 — 13.7%
Form and table context
Alverca are 10th with 11 points from 9 games; Casa Pia are 17th with 7 points from 10 games.
How far to trust this
One match is a very small sample. Even a well-calibrated model is wrong about individual games most of the time, and ours has not been shown to be better than bookmaker prices. Our measured results, including losses, are on the prediction accuracy page and every settled pick is in the public pick log.
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Model output last changed 2026-11-01 22:51 UTC. All upcoming match predictions