Arsenal vs Hull prediction
Kick-off ·Premier League
These are statistical model estimates, not tips and not a guarantee of any result. We have not shown that the model beats the bookmaker market (no proven edge). 18+ | Not financial advice.
Summary
Arsenal are the model's clear favourites at home at 68%, with Hull at 9% and the draw at 24%. The goals model points to a tighter game: Over 2.5 goals is rated at only 41% on about 2.3 expected goals, while both teams scoring is rated below even (35%). The most likely single scoreline is 1:0 at 18%, which shows how thinly probability spreads in one match.
Model probabilities
| Market | Probability |
|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 67.7% |
| Draw | 23.6% |
| Hull win | 8.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.1% |
| Both teams to score | 34.9% |
Expected goals from the model: Arsenal 1.811, Hull 0.516. Probabilities come from a Poisson goal model; see how the model works.
Most likely scorelines
- 1:0 — 17.7%
- 2:0 — 16.0%
- 0:0 — 9.8%
Form and table context
Arsenal are 1st with 24 points from 9 games; Hull are 10th with 11 points from 9 games.
How far to trust this
One match is a very small sample. Even a well-calibrated model is wrong about individual games most of the time, and ours has not been shown to be better than bookmaker prices. Our measured results, including losses, are on the prediction accuracy page and every settled pick is in the public pick log.
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Model output last changed 2026-11-01 22:24 UTC. All upcoming match predictions