Atl. Madrid vs Bayern Munich prediction
Kick-off ·UEFA Champions League
These are statistical model estimates, not tips and not a guarantee of any result. We have not shown that the model beats the bookmaker market (no proven edge). 18+ | Not financial advice.
Summary
Atl. Madrid are the model's slight favourites at home at 44%, with Bayern Munich at 25% and the draw at 31%. The goals model points to a tighter game: Over 2.5 goals is rated at only 40% on about 2.3 expected goals. The most likely single scoreline is 1:0 at 14%, which shows how thinly probability spreads in one match.
Model probabilities
| Market | Probability |
|---|---|
| Atl. Madrid win | 44.2% |
| Draw | 31.1% |
| Bayern Munich win | 24.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.2% |
| Both teams to score | 47.0% |
Expected goals from the model: Atl. Madrid 1.344, Bayern Munich 0.949. Probabilities come from a Poisson goal model; see how the model works.
Most likely scorelines
- 1:0 — 13.6%
- 1:1 — 12.9%
- 0:0 — 10.1%
Form and table context
Atl. Madrid are 2nd in their domestic league with 28 points from 11 games; Bayern Munich are 1st in their domestic league with 18 points from 8 games.
How far to trust this
One match is a very small sample. Even a well-calibrated model is wrong about individual games most of the time, and ours has not been shown to be better than bookmaker prices. Our measured results, including losses, are on the prediction accuracy page and every settled pick is in the public pick log.
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Model output last changed 2026-11-01 22:24 UTC. All upcoming match predictions