Auxerre vs Paris FC prediction
Kick-off ·Ligue 1
These are statistical model estimates, not tips and not a guarantee of any result. We have not shown that the model beats the bookmaker market (no proven edge). 18+ | Not financial advice.
Summary
The model sees Auxerre v Paris FC as close to a coin flip between the sides (34% / 32% / 34% for a home win, draw and away win). The goals model points to a tighter game: Over 2.5 goals is rated at only 39% on about 2.2 expected goals. The most likely single scoreline is 1:1 at 13%, which shows how thinly probability spreads in one match.
Model probabilities
| Market | Probability |
|---|---|
| Auxerre win | 33.6% |
| Draw | 32.3% |
| Paris FC win | 34.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.8% |
| Both teams to score | 47.2% |
Expected goals from the model: Auxerre 1.116, Paris FC 1.126. Probabilities come from a Poisson goal model; see how the model works.
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1 — 13.4%
- 0:1 — 12.0%
- 1:0 — 11.9%
Form and table context
Auxerre are 14th with 10 points from 9 games; Paris FC are 4th with 17 points from 9 games.
How far to trust this
One match is a very small sample. Even a well-calibrated model is wrong about individual games most of the time, and ours has not been shown to be better than bookmaker prices. Our measured results, including losses, are on the prediction accuracy page and every settled pick is in the public pick log.
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Model output last changed 2026-11-02 23:13 UTC. All upcoming match predictions