AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen prediction
Kick-off ·Eredivisie
These are statistical model estimates, not tips and not a guarantee of any result. We have not shown that the model beats the bookmaker market (no proven edge). 18+ | Not financial advice.
Summary
AZ Alkmaar are the model's slight favourites at home at 45%, with Groningen at 32% and the draw at 23%. The goals model points to an open game: Over 2.5 goals is rated at 73% on about 3.8 expected goals, and both teams scoring is more likely than not (73%). The most likely single scoreline is 2:1 at 8%, which shows how thinly probability spreads in one match.
Model probabilities
| Market | Probability |
|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar win | 44.8% |
| Draw | 23.1% |
| Groningen win | 32.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.4% |
| Both teams to score | 73.2% |
Expected goals from the model: AZ Alkmaar 2.072, Groningen 1.749. Probabilities come from a Poisson goal model; see how the model works.
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1 — 8.2%
- 1:1 — 7.9%
- 2:2 — 7.2%
Form and table context
AZ Alkmaar are 5th with 20 points from 11 games; Groningen are 8th with 15 points from 11 games.
How far to trust this
One match is a very small sample. Even a well-calibrated model is wrong about individual games most of the time, and ours has not been shown to be better than bookmaker prices. Our measured results, including losses, are on the prediction accuracy page and every settled pick is in the public pick log.
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Model output last changed 2026-11-01 22:24 UTC. All upcoming match predictions