AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus prediction
Kick-off ·UEFA Europa League
These are statistical model estimates, not tips and not a guarantee of any result. We have not shown that the model beats the bookmaker market (no proven edge). 18+ | Not financial advice.
Summary
AZ Alkmaar are the model's slight favourites at home at 39%, with Juventus at 26% and the draw at 35%. The goals model points to a tighter game: Over 2.5 goals is rated at only 30% on about 1.9 expected goals, while both teams scoring is rated below even (40%). The most likely single scoreline is 1:0 at 16%, which shows how thinly probability spreads in one match.
Model probabilities
| Market | Probability |
|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar win | 39.4% |
| Draw | 34.6% |
| Juventus win | 26.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30.5% |
| Both teams to score | 39.5% |
Expected goals from the model: AZ Alkmaar 1.094, Juventus 0.84. Probabilities come from a Poisson goal model; see how the model works.
Most likely scorelines
- 1:0 — 15.8%
- 0:0 — 14.5%
- 1:1 — 13.3%
Form and table context
AZ Alkmaar are 5th in their domestic league with 20 points from 11 games; Juventus are 7th in their domestic league with 17 points from 10 games.
How far to trust this
One match is a very small sample. Even a well-calibrated model is wrong about individual games most of the time, and ours has not been shown to be better than bookmaker prices. Our measured results, including losses, are on the prediction accuracy page and every settled pick is in the public pick log.
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Model output last changed 2026-11-01 22:24 UTC. All upcoming match predictions