Celta Vigo vs Levante prediction
Kick-off ·La Liga
These are statistical model estimates, not tips and not a guarantee of any result. We have not shown that the model beats the bookmaker market (no proven edge). 18+ | Not financial advice.
Summary
Celta Vigo are the model's clear favourites at home at 58%, with Levante at 12% and the draw at 30%. The goals model points to a tighter game: Over 2.5 goals is rated at only 32% on about 2.0 expected goals, while both teams scoring is rated below even (33%). The most likely single scoreline is 1:0 at 20%, which shows how thinly probability spreads in one match.
Model probabilities
| Market | Probability |
|---|---|
| Celta Vigo win | 58.4% |
| Draw | 29.5% |
| Levante win | 12.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31.6% |
| Both teams to score | 32.8% |
Expected goals from the model: Celta Vigo 1.445, Levante 0.529. Probabilities come from a Poisson goal model; see how the model works.
Most likely scorelines
- 1:0 — 20.1%
- 2:0 — 14.5%
- 0:0 — 13.9%
Form and table context
Celta Vigo are 9th with 12 points from 11 games; Levante are 18th with 10 points from 11 games.
How far to trust this
One match is a very small sample. Even a well-calibrated model is wrong about individual games most of the time, and ours has not been shown to be better than bookmaker prices. Our measured results, including losses, are on the prediction accuracy page and every settled pick is in the public pick log.
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Model output last changed 2026-11-01 22:24 UTC. All upcoming match predictions