Celta Vigo vs Royale Union SG prediction
Kick-off ·UEFA Europa League
These are statistical model estimates, not tips and not a guarantee of any result. We have not shown that the model beats the bookmaker market (no proven edge). 18+ | Not financial advice.
Summary
Royale Union SG are the model's clear favourites away from home at 77%, with Celta Vigo at 6% and the draw at 17%. The goals model points to a balanced goals line, with Over 2.5 at 57% on about 3.0 expected goals, while both teams scoring is rated below even (41%). The most likely single scoreline is 0:2 at 15%, which shows how thinly probability spreads in one match.
Model probabilities
| Market | Probability |
|---|---|
| Celta Vigo win | 6.2% |
| Draw | 17.0% |
| Royale Union SG win | 76.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.9% |
| Both teams to score | 40.8% |
Expected goals from the model: Celta Vigo 0.578, Royale Union SG 2.39. Probabilities come from a Poisson goal model; see how the model works.
Most likely scorelines
- 0:2 — 14.7%
- 0:1 — 12.3%
- 0:3 — 11.7%
Form and table context
Celta Vigo are 25th in their domestic league with 3 points from 3 games; Royale Union SG are 6th in their domestic league with 7 points from 3 games.
How far to trust this
One match is a very small sample. Even a well-calibrated model is wrong about individual games most of the time, and ours has not been shown to be better than bookmaker prices. Our measured results, including losses, are on the prediction accuracy page and every settled pick is in the public pick log.
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Model output last changed 2026-11-01 22:24 UTC. All upcoming match predictions