Dortmund vs Elversberg prediction
Kick-off ·Bundesliga
These are statistical model estimates, not tips and not a guarantee of any result. We have not shown that the model beats the bookmaker market (no proven edge). 18+ | Not financial advice.
Summary
Dortmund are the model's clear favourites at home at 76%, with Elversberg at 6% and the draw at 18%. The goals model points to a balanced goals line, with Over 2.5 at 51% on about 2.7 expected goals, while both teams scoring is rated below even (36%). The most likely single scoreline is 2:0 at 16%, which shows how thinly probability spreads in one match.
Model probabilities
| Market | Probability |
|---|---|
| Dortmund win | 76.3% |
| Draw | 17.9% |
| Elversberg win | 5.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.4% |
| Both teams to score | 35.9% |
Expected goals from the model: Dortmund 2.234, Elversberg 0.497. Probabilities come from a Poisson goal model; see how the model works.
Most likely scorelines
- 2:0 — 16.3%
- 1:0 — 14.6%
- 3:0 — 12.1%
Form and table context
Dortmund are 2nd with 18 points from 8 games; Elversberg are 7th with 13 points from 8 games.
How far to trust this
One match is a very small sample. Even a well-calibrated model is wrong about individual games most of the time, and ours has not been shown to be better than bookmaker prices. Our measured results, including losses, are on the prediction accuracy page and every settled pick is in the public pick log.
Open this match in the app
Lineups, live score and the full model view for Dortmund vs Elversberg. Free plan, no credit card.
View in the appCreate a free account · 18+
Model output last changed 2026-11-01 22:24 UTC. All upcoming match predictions