Famalicao vs Arouca prediction
Kick-off ·Primeira Liga
These are statistical model estimates, not tips and not a guarantee of any result. We have not shown that the model beats the bookmaker market (no proven edge). 18+ | Not financial advice.
Summary
Arouca are the model's slight favourites away from home at 54%, with Famalicao at 14% and the draw at 33%. The goals model points to a tighter game: Over 2.5 goals is rated at only 27% on about 1.8 expected goals, while both teams scoring is rated below even (31%). The most likely single scoreline is 0:1 at 21%, which shows how thinly probability spreads in one match.
Model probabilities
| Market | Probability |
|---|---|
| Famalicao win | 13.9% |
| Draw | 32.6% |
| Arouca win | 53.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 26.7% |
| Both teams to score | 30.7% |
Expected goals from the model: Famalicao 0.523, Arouca 1.269. Probabilities come from a Poisson goal model; see how the model works.
Most likely scorelines
- 0:1 — 21.1%
- 0:0 — 16.7%
- 0:2 — 13.4%
Form and table context
Famalicao are 11th with 10 points from 10 games; Arouca are 5th with 20 points from 10 games.
How far to trust this
One match is a very small sample. Even a well-calibrated model is wrong about individual games most of the time, and ours has not been shown to be better than bookmaker prices. Our measured results, including losses, are on the prediction accuracy page and every settled pick is in the public pick log.
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Model output last changed 2026-11-01 22:51 UTC. All upcoming match predictions