FC Porto vs Napoli prediction
Kick-off ·UEFA Champions League
These are statistical model estimates, not tips and not a guarantee of any result. We have not shown that the model beats the bookmaker market (no proven edge). 18+ | Not financial advice.
Summary
FC Porto are the model's clear favourites at home at 68%, with Napoli at 9% and the draw at 23%. The goals model points to a balanced goals line, with Over 2.5 at 46% on about 2.5 expected goals, while both teams scoring is rated below even (40%). The most likely single scoreline is 1:0 at 15%, which shows how thinly probability spreads in one match.
Model probabilities
| Market | Probability |
|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 68.1% |
| Draw | 22.6% |
| Napoli win | 9.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% |
| Both teams to score | 39.6% |
Expected goals from the model: FC Porto 1.933, Napoli 0.596. Probabilities come from a Poisson goal model; see how the model works.
Most likely scorelines
- 1:0 — 15.4%
- 2:0 — 14.9%
- 3:0 — 9.6%
Form and table context
FC Porto are 1st in their domestic league with 30 points from 10 games; Napoli are 8th in their domestic league with 14 points from 10 games.
How far to trust this
One match is a very small sample. Even a well-calibrated model is wrong about individual games most of the time, and ours has not been shown to be better than bookmaker prices. Our measured results, including losses, are on the prediction accuracy page and every settled pick is in the public pick log.
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Model output last changed 2026-11-01 22:24 UTC. All upcoming match predictions