Genoa vs AC Milan prediction
Kick-off ·Serie A
These are statistical model estimates, not tips and not a guarantee of any result. We have not shown that the model beats the bookmaker market (no proven edge). 18+ | Not financial advice.
Summary
AC Milan are the model's clear favourites away from home at 58%, with Genoa at 17% and the draw at 26%. The goals model points to a balanced goals line, with Over 2.5 at 51% on about 2.7 expected goals. The most likely single scoreline is 0:1 at 12%, which shows how thinly probability spreads in one match.
Model probabilities
| Market | Probability |
|---|---|
| Genoa win | 16.7% |
| Draw | 25.5% |
| AC Milan win | 57.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.9% |
| Both teams to score | 50.9% |
Expected goals from the model: Genoa 0.894, AC Milan 1.819. Probabilities come from a Poisson goal model; see how the model works.
Most likely scorelines
- 0:1 — 12.1%
- 0:2 — 11.0%
- 1:1 — 10.8%
Form and table context
Genoa are 11th with 13 points from 10 games; AC Milan are 5th with 21 points from 10 games.
How far to trust this
One match is a very small sample. Even a well-calibrated model is wrong about individual games most of the time, and ours has not been shown to be better than bookmaker prices. Our measured results, including losses, are on the prediction accuracy page and every settled pick is in the public pick log.
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Model output last changed 2026-11-01 22:24 UTC. All upcoming match predictions