Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie prediction
Kick-off ·Ekstraklasa
These are statistical model estimates, not tips and not a guarantee of any result. We have not shown that the model beats the bookmaker market (no proven edge). 18+ | Not financial advice.
Summary
Lech Poznan are the model's clear favourites at home at 79%, with Zaglebie at 6% and the draw at 14%. The goals model points to an open game: Over 2.5 goals is rated at 69% on about 3.5 expected goals. The most likely single scoreline is 2:0 at 11%, which shows how thinly probability spreads in one match.
Model probabilities
| Market | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lech Poznan win | 79.1% |
| Draw | 14.5% |
| Zaglebie win | 6.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.6% |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% |
Expected goals from the model: Lech Poznan 2.8, Zaglebie 0.743. Probabilities come from a Poisson goal model; see how the model works.
Most likely scorelines
- 2:0 — 11.3%
- 3:0 — 10.6%
- 2:1 — 8.4%
Form and table context
Lech Poznan are 1st with 31 points from 12 games; Zaglebie are 5th with 22 points from 13 games.
How far to trust this
One match is a very small sample. Even a well-calibrated model is wrong about individual games most of the time, and ours has not been shown to be better than bookmaker prices. Our measured results, including losses, are on the prediction accuracy page and every settled pick is in the public pick log.
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Model output last changed 2026-11-02 23:13 UTC. All upcoming match predictions