Malaga vs Racing Santander prediction
Kick-off ·La Liga
These are statistical model estimates, not tips and not a guarantee of any result. We have not shown that the model beats the bookmaker market (no proven edge). 18+ | Not financial advice.
Summary
Malaga are the model's slight favourites at home at 46%, with Racing Santander at 28% and the draw at 25%. The goals model points to an open game: Over 2.5 goals is rated at 62% on about 3.2 expected goals, and both teams scoring is more likely than not (64%). The most likely single scoreline is 1:1 at 10%, which shows how thinly probability spreads in one match.
Model probabilities
| Market | Probability |
|---|---|
| Malaga win | 46.3% |
| Draw | 25.4% |
| Racing Santander win | 28.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.5% |
| Both teams to score | 64.5% |
Expected goals from the model: Malaga 1.826, Racing Santander 1.397. Probabilities come from a Poisson goal model; see how the model works.
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1 — 10.2%
- 2:1 — 9.3%
- 1:0 — 7.3%
Form and table context
Malaga are 20th with 5 points from 11 games; Racing Santander are 16th with 11 points from 11 games.
How far to trust this
One match is a very small sample. Even a well-calibrated model is wrong about individual games most of the time, and ours has not been shown to be better than bookmaker prices. Our measured results, including losses, are on the prediction accuracy page and every settled pick is in the public pick log.
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Model output last changed 2026-11-01 22:24 UTC. All upcoming match predictions