Manchester Utd vs AS Roma prediction
Kick-off ·UEFA Champions League
These are statistical model estimates, not tips and not a guarantee of any result. We have not shown that the model beats the bookmaker market (no proven edge). 18+ | Not financial advice.
Summary
AS Roma are the model's clear favourites away from home at 72%, with Manchester Utd at 12% and the draw at 16%. The goals model points to an open game: Over 2.5 goals is rated at 76% on about 4.0 expected goals, and both teams scoring is more likely than not (65%). The most likely single scoreline is 1:2 at 8%, which shows how thinly probability spreads in one match.
Model probabilities
| Market | Probability |
|---|---|
| Manchester Utd win | 11.5% |
| Draw | 16.4% |
| AS Roma win | 72.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.1% |
| Both teams to score | 64.7% |
Expected goals from the model: Manchester Utd 1.134, AS Roma 2.868. Probabilities come from a Poisson goal model; see how the model works.
Most likely scorelines
- 1:2 — 8.5%
- 1:3 — 8.1%
- 0:2 — 7.5%
Form and table context
Manchester Utd are 17th in their domestic league with 7 points from 9 games; AS Roma are 3rd in their domestic league with 24 points from 10 games.
How far to trust this
One match is a very small sample. Even a well-calibrated model is wrong about individual games most of the time, and ours has not been shown to be better than bookmaker prices. Our measured results, including losses, are on the prediction accuracy page and every settled pick is in the public pick log.
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Model output last changed 2026-11-01 22:24 UTC. All upcoming match predictions