Napoli vs Lazio prediction
Kick-off ·Serie A
These are statistical model estimates, not tips and not a guarantee of any result. We have not shown that the model beats the bookmaker market (no proven edge). 18+ | Not financial advice.
Summary
Lazio are the model's clear favourites away from home at 62%, with Napoli at 16% and the draw at 23%. The goals model points to an open game: Over 2.5 goals is rated at 58% on about 3.0 expected goals, and both teams scoring is more likely than not (55%). The most likely single scoreline is 0:2 at 10%, which shows how thinly probability spreads in one match.
Model probabilities
| Market | Probability |
|---|---|
| Napoli win | 15.5% |
| Draw | 22.9% |
| Lazio win | 61.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.4% |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% |
Expected goals from the model: Napoli 0.965, Lazio 2.069. Probabilities come from a Poisson goal model; see how the model works.
Most likely scorelines
- 0:2 — 10.3%
- 0:1 — 10.0%
- 1:2 — 9.9%
Form and table context
Napoli are 8th with 14 points from 10 games; Lazio are 1st with 28 points from 10 games.
How far to trust this
One match is a very small sample. Even a well-calibrated model is wrong about individual games most of the time, and ours has not been shown to be better than bookmaker prices. Our measured results, including losses, are on the prediction accuracy page and every settled pick is in the public pick log.
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Model output last changed 2026-11-01 22:24 UTC. All upcoming match predictions