Osasuna vs Ath Bilbao prediction
Kick-off ·La Liga
These are statistical model estimates, not tips and not a guarantee of any result. We have not shown that the model beats the bookmaker market (no proven edge). 18+ | Not financial advice.
Summary
A draw is the single most likely result at 44%, ahead of a home win (37%) and an away win (20%). The goals model points to a tighter game: Over 2.5 goals is rated at only 13% on about 1.2 expected goals, while both teams scoring is rated below even (21%). The most likely single scoreline is 0:0 at 29%, which shows how thinly probability spreads in one match.
Model probabilities
| Market | Probability |
|---|---|
| Osasuna win | 36.7% |
| Draw | 43.5% |
| Ath Bilbao win | 19.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 12.6% |
| Both teams to score | 21.4% |
Expected goals from the model: Osasuna 0.748, Ath Bilbao 0.478. Probabilities come from a Poisson goal model; see how the model works.
Most likely scorelines
- 0:0 — 29.3%
- 1:0 — 22.0%
- 0:1 — 14.0%
Form and table context
Osasuna are 15th with 11 points from 10 games; Ath Bilbao are 7th with 15 points from 10 games.
How far to trust this
One match is a very small sample. Even a well-calibrated model is wrong about individual games most of the time, and ours has not been shown to be better than bookmaker prices. Our measured results, including losses, are on the prediction accuracy page and every settled pick is in the public pick log.
Open this match in the app
Lineups, live score and the full model view for Osasuna vs Ath Bilbao. Free plan, no credit card.
View in the appCreate a free account · 18+
Model output last changed 2026-11-01 22:24 UTC. All upcoming match predictions