Parma vs Bologna prediction
Kick-off ·Serie A
These are statistical model estimates, not tips and not a guarantee of any result. We have not shown that the model beats the bookmaker market (no proven edge). 18+ | Not financial advice.
Summary
Bologna are the model's clear favourites away from home at 64%, with Parma at 10% and the draw at 26%. The goals model points to a tighter game: Over 2.5 goals is rated at only 38% on about 2.2 expected goals, while both teams scoring is rated below even (35%). The most likely single scoreline is 0:1 at 18%, which shows how thinly probability spreads in one match.
Model probabilities
| Market | Probability |
|---|---|
| Parma win | 10.2% |
| Draw | 26.0% |
| Bologna win | 63.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.5% |
| Both teams to score | 34.8% |
Expected goals from the model: Parma 0.534, Bologna 1.659. Probabilities come from a Poisson goal model; see how the model works.
Most likely scorelines
- 0:1 — 18.5%
- 0:2 — 15.4%
- 0:0 — 11.2%
Form and table context
Parma are 18th with 5 points from 9 games; Bologna are 9th with 14 points from 10 games.
How far to trust this
One match is a very small sample. Even a well-calibrated model is wrong about individual games most of the time, and ours has not been shown to be better than bookmaker prices. Our measured results, including losses, are on the prediction accuracy page and every settled pick is in the public pick log.
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Model output last changed 2026-11-01 22:24 UTC. All upcoming match predictions