Real Sociedad vs Lyon prediction
Kick-off ·UEFA Europa League
These are statistical model estimates, not tips and not a guarantee of any result. We have not shown that the model beats the bookmaker market (no proven edge). 18+ | Not financial advice.
Summary
The model sees Real Sociedad v Lyon as close to a coin flip between the sides (32% / 35% / 33% for a home win, draw and away win). The goals model points to a tighter game: Over 2.5 goals is rated at only 30% on about 1.9 expected goals, while both teams scoring is rated below even (40%). The most likely single scoreline is 0:0 at 15%, which shows how thinly probability spreads in one match.
Model probabilities
| Market | Probability |
|---|---|
| Real Sociedad win | 31.7% |
| Draw | 35.2% |
| Lyon win | 33.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30.1% |
| Both teams to score | 39.8% |
Expected goals from the model: Real Sociedad 0.945, Lyon 0.972. Probabilities come from a Poisson goal model; see how the model works.
Most likely scorelines
- 0:0 — 14.7%
- 0:1 — 14.3%
- 1:0 — 13.9%
Form and table context
Real Sociedad are 5th in their domestic league with 19 points from 11 games; Lyon are 3rd in their domestic league with 17 points from 9 games.
How far to trust this
One match is a very small sample. Even a well-calibrated model is wrong about individual games most of the time, and ours has not been shown to be better than bookmaker prices. Our measured results, including losses, are on the prediction accuracy page and every settled pick is in the public pick log.
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Model output last changed 2026-11-01 22:24 UTC. All upcoming match predictions