Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano prediction

Kick-off Sunday 08 November 2026, 15:15 UTC·La Liga

Summary

Real Sociedad are the model's slight favourites at home at 54%, with Rayo Vallecano at 23% and the draw at 22%. The goals model points to an open game: Over 2.5 goals is rated at 70% on about 3.6 expected goals, and both teams scoring is more likely than not (69%). The most likely single scoreline is 2:1 at 9%, which shows how thinly probability spreads in one match.

Model probabilities

Expected goals from the model: Real Sociedad 2.215, Rayo Vallecano 1.425. Probabilities come from a Poisson goal model; see how the model works.

Most likely scorelines

• 2:1 — 9.2%
• 1:1 — 8.3%
• 3:1 — 6.8%

Form and table context

Real Sociedad are 5th with 19 points from 11 games; Rayo Vallecano are 11th with 12 points from 10 games.

How far to trust this

One match is a very small sample. Even a well-calibrated model is wrong about individual games most of the time, and ours has not been shown to be better than bookmaker prices. Our measured results, including losses, are on the prediction accuracy page and every settled pick is in the public pick log.

Model output last changed 2026-11-01 22:24 UTC. All upcoming match predictions