Santa Clara vs Gil Vicente prediction
Kick-off ·Primeira Liga
These are statistical model estimates, not tips and not a guarantee of any result. We have not shown that the model beats the bookmaker market (no proven edge). 18+ | Not financial advice.
Summary
Santa Clara are the model's slight favourites at home at 43%, with Gil Vicente at 23% and the draw at 34%. The goals model points to a tighter game: Over 2.5 goals is rated at only 31% on about 1.9 expected goals, while both teams scoring is rated below even (39%). The most likely single scoreline is 1:0 at 17%, which shows how thinly probability spreads in one match.
Model probabilities
| Market | Probability |
|---|---|
| Santa Clara win | 43.0% |
| Draw | 34.0% |
| Gil Vicente win | 22.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30.6% |
| Both teams to score | 38.7% |
Expected goals from the model: Santa Clara 1.159, Gil Vicente 0.777. Probabilities come from a Poisson goal model; see how the model works.
Most likely scorelines
- 1:0 — 16.7%
- 0:0 — 14.4%
- 1:1 — 13.0%
Form and table context
Santa Clara are 4th with 21 points from 10 games; Gil Vicente are 7th with 14 points from 9 games.
How far to trust this
One match is a very small sample. Even a well-calibrated model is wrong about individual games most of the time, and ours has not been shown to be better than bookmaker prices. Our measured results, including losses, are on the prediction accuracy page and every settled pick is in the public pick log.
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Model output last changed 2026-11-01 22:24 UTC. All upcoming match predictions