Sporting CP vs Moreirense prediction
Kick-off ·Primeira Liga
These are statistical model estimates, not tips and not a guarantee of any result. We have not shown that the model beats the bookmaker market (no proven edge). 18+ | Not financial advice.
Summary
Sporting CP are the model's slight favourites at home at 55%, with Moreirense at 23% and the draw at 22%. The goals model points to an open game: Over 2.5 goals is rated at 72% on about 3.7 expected goals, and both teams scoring is more likely than not (70%). The most likely single scoreline is 2:1 at 9%, which shows how thinly probability spreads in one match.
Model probabilities
| Market | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sporting CP win | 54.8% |
| Draw | 22.0% |
| Moreirense win | 23.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.1% |
| Both teams to score | 70.0% |
Expected goals from the model: Sporting CP 2.277, Moreirense 1.463. Probabilities come from a Poisson goal model; see how the model works.
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1 — 9.0%
- 1:1 — 7.9%
- 3:1 — 6.8%
Form and table context
Sporting CP are 3rd with 21 points from 10 games; Moreirense are 9th with 14 points from 10 games.
How far to trust this
One match is a very small sample. Even a well-calibrated model is wrong about individual games most of the time, and ours has not been shown to be better than bookmaker prices. Our measured results, including losses, are on the prediction accuracy page and every settled pick is in the public pick log.
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Model output last changed 2026-11-01 22:51 UTC. All upcoming match predictions