Sturm Graz vs Celje prediction
Kick-off ·UEFA Europa League
These are statistical model estimates, not tips and not a guarantee of any result. We have not shown that the model beats the bookmaker market (no proven edge). 18+ | Not financial advice.
Summary
Sturm Graz are the model's slight favourites at home at 54%, with Celje at 10% and the draw at 37%. The goals model points to a tighter game: Over 2.5 goals is rated at only 15% on about 1.4 expected goals, while both teams scoring is rated below even (18%). The most likely single scoreline is 1:0 at 27%, which shows how thinly probability spreads in one match.
Model probabilities
| Market | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sturm Graz win | 53.6% |
| Draw | 36.9% |
| Celje win | 9.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 15.4% |
| Both teams to score | 17.9% |
Expected goals from the model: Sturm Graz 1.049, Celje 0.301. Probabilities come from a Poisson goal model; see how the model works.
Most likely scorelines
- 1:0 — 27.2%
- 0:0 — 25.9%
- 2:0 — 14.3%
Form and table context
Sturm Graz are 19th in their domestic league with 4 points from 3 games; Celje are 29th in their domestic league with 1 points from 3 games.
How far to trust this
One match is a very small sample. Even a well-calibrated model is wrong about individual games most of the time, and ours has not been shown to be better than bookmaker prices. Our measured results, including losses, are on the prediction accuracy page and every settled pick is in the public pick log.
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Model output last changed 2026-11-01 22:24 UTC. All upcoming match predictions