Twente vs Ajax prediction
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These are statistical model estimates, not tips and not a guarantee of any result. We have not shown that the model beats the bookmaker market (no proven edge). 18+ | Not financial advice.
Summary
Ajax are the model's slight favourites away from home at 52%, with Twente at 22% and the draw at 26%. The goals model points to a balanced goals line, with Over 2.5 at 54% on about 2.8 expected goals, and both teams scoring is more likely than not (56%). The most likely single scoreline is 1:1 at 11%, which shows how thinly probability spreads in one match.
Model probabilities
| Market | Probability |
|---|---|
| Twente win | 21.8% |
| Draw | 26.5% |
| Ajax win | 51.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.6% |
| Both teams to score | 55.9% |
Expected goals from the model: Twente 1.076, Ajax 1.749. Probabilities come from a Poisson goal model; see how the model works.
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1 — 11.2%
- 0:1 — 10.4%
- 1:2 — 9.8%
Form and table context
Twente are 4th with 23 points from 11 games; Ajax are 2nd with 24 points from 11 games.
How far to trust this
One match is a very small sample. Even a well-calibrated model is wrong about individual games most of the time, and ours has not been shown to be better than bookmaker prices. Our measured results, including losses, are on the prediction accuracy page and every settled pick is in the public pick log.
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Model output last changed 2026-11-01 22:24 UTC. All upcoming match predictions