Valencia vs Real Madrid prediction
Kick-off ·La Liga
These are statistical model estimates, not tips and not a guarantee of any result. We have not shown that the model beats the bookmaker market (no proven edge). 18+ | Not financial advice.
Summary
Real Madrid are the model's clear favourites away from home at 82%, with Valencia at 4% and the draw at 14%. The goals model points to an open game: Over 2.5 goals is rated at 61% on about 3.1 expected goals, while both teams scoring is rated below even (38%). The most likely single scoreline is 0:2 at 15%, which shows how thinly probability spreads in one match.
Model probabilities
| Market | Probability |
|---|---|
| Valencia win | 4.3% |
| Draw | 13.8% |
| Real Madrid win | 81.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.8% |
| Both teams to score | 37.7% |
Expected goals from the model: Valencia 0.507, Real Madrid 2.638. Probabilities come from a Poisson goal model; see how the model works.
Most likely scorelines
- 0:2 — 15.0%
- 0:3 — 13.2%
- 0:1 — 11.4%
Form and table context
Valencia are 19th with 9 points from 11 games; Real Madrid are 3rd with 27 points from 11 games.
How far to trust this
One match is a very small sample. Even a well-calibrated model is wrong about individual games most of the time, and ours has not been shown to be better than bookmaker prices. Our measured results, including losses, are on the prediction accuracy page and every settled pick is in the public pick log.
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Model output last changed 2026-11-01 22:24 UTC. All upcoming match predictions