Villarreal vs PSG prediction
Kick-off ·UEFA Champions League
These are statistical model estimates, not tips and not a guarantee of any result. We have not shown that the model beats the bookmaker market (no proven edge). 18+ | Not financial advice.
Summary
PSG are the model's clear favourites away from home at 66%, with Villarreal at 13% and the draw at 21%. The goals model points to an open game: Over 2.5 goals is rated at 62% on about 3.2 expected goals, and both teams scoring is more likely than not (56%). The most likely single scoreline is 0:2 at 10%, which shows how thinly probability spreads in one match.
Model probabilities
| Market | Probability |
|---|---|
| Villarreal win | 13.2% |
| Draw | 20.9% |
| PSG win | 65.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.8% |
| Both teams to score | 55.7% |
Expected goals from the model: Villarreal 0.94, PSG 2.249. Probabilities come from a Poisson goal model; see how the model works.
Most likely scorelines
- 0:2 — 10.4%
- 1:2 — 9.8%
- 0:1 — 9.3%
Form and table context
Villarreal are 8th in their domestic league with 12 points from 11 games; PSG are 1st in their domestic league with 20 points from 9 games.
How far to trust this
One match is a very small sample. Even a well-calibrated model is wrong about individual games most of the time, and ours has not been shown to be better than bookmaker prices. Our measured results, including losses, are on the prediction accuracy page and every settled pick is in the public pick log.
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Model output last changed 2026-11-01 22:24 UTC. All upcoming match predictions