Widzew Lodz vs Pogon Szczecin prediction
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These are statistical model estimates, not tips and not a guarantee of any result. We have not shown that the model beats the bookmaker market (no proven edge). 18+ | Not financial advice.
Summary
Pogon Szczecin are the model's slight favourites away from home at 53%, with Widzew Lodz at 17% and the draw at 30%. The goals model points to a tighter game: Over 2.5 goals is rated at only 36% on about 2.2 expected goals, while both teams scoring is rated below even (41%). The most likely single scoreline is 0:1 at 17%, which shows how thinly probability spreads in one match.
Model probabilities
| Market | Probability |
|---|---|
| Widzew Lodz win | 17.0% |
| Draw | 30.1% |
| Pogon Szczecin win | 52.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.5% |
| Both teams to score | 40.6% |
Expected goals from the model: Widzew Lodz 0.716, Pogon Szczecin 1.44. Probabilities come from a Poisson goal model; see how the model works.
Most likely scorelines
- 0:1 — 16.7%
- 0:2 — 12.0%
- 1:1 — 11.9%
Form and table context
Widzew Lodz are 14th with 11 points from 13 games; Pogon Szczecin are 4th with 24 points from 12 games.
How far to trust this
One match is a very small sample. Even a well-calibrated model is wrong about individual games most of the time, and ours has not been shown to be better than bookmaker prices. Our measured results, including losses, are on the prediction accuracy page and every settled pick is in the public pick log.
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Model output last changed 2026-11-02 23:13 UTC. All upcoming match predictions