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Public pick log

Settled picks only, newest first

Only picks that have been settled appear here, so nothing on this page is a live pick. Wins, losses and voids are all listed. Picks issued after kick-off, and picks touched by a past settlement repair, are shown and flagged rather than hidden. 18+ | Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future results.

Summary

As of 2026-11-02, excluding picks issued after kick-off: 550 settled picks (285 won, 265 lost). Flat 1-unit stake ROI is +1.54% with a 95% interval of -7.1% to +10.2% (normal approximation). The interval includes zero: this is not evidence of an edge.

Closing-line value: 138 picks (25.1%) have a stored closing price; mean difference to close +9.12%. This mostly reflects taking the best price across bookmakers and comparing it with a single closing price that still includes the bookmaker's margin. It is not evidence that the model predicts better than the market.

How we measure this · Model methodology

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1067 picks. Download CSV (rate-limited).

#Match dateMatchLeagueMarketOddsModel prob.OutcomeIssued (UTC)Flags
10202026-10-25Inter vs Fiorentina (2-1)Serie ABTTS 1.73 61.6% won2026-10-22 12:09:52 pre-kickoff
10152026-10-25Manchester Utd vs Bournemouth (0-3)Premier LeagueManchester Utd Win 2.10 49.0% lost2026-10-22 00:07:00 pre-kickoff
10142026-10-25Manchester Utd vs Bournemouth (0-3)Premier LeagueOver 2.5 goals 1.67 62.1% won2026-10-21 21:06:16 pre-kickoff
10132026-10-25GAIS vs Goteborg (1-1)AllsvenskanGAIS Win 2.47 42.2% lost2026-10-21 21:06:16 pre-kickoff
10082026-10-25Kawasaki Frontale vs Okayama (2-1)J1 LeagueOver 2.5 goals 1.79 60.5% won2026-10-21 15:04:57 pre-kickoff
10012026-10-25Sittard vs Excelsior (1-0)EredivisieExcelsior Win 2.76 37.3% lost2026-10-20 15:00:24 pre-kickoff
9992026-10-25Urawa Reds vs V-Varen Nagasaki (1-0)J1 LeagueOver 2.5 goals 1.67 61.9% lost2026-10-20 08:59:18 pre-kickoff
9792026-10-25Orlando City vs New York City (2-2)MLS - Regular seasonOrlando City Win 2.37 43.5% lost2026-10-18 02:49:35 pre-kickoff
9702026-10-25Liverpool vs Brighton (2-0)Premier LeagueBrighton Win 3.45 30.6% lost2026-10-17 11:46:51 pre-kickoff
9522026-10-25Crystal Palace vs Newcastle (0-2)Premier LeagueOver 2.5 goals 1.68 64.3% lost2026-10-16 11:41:34 pre-kickoff
10332026-10-24FC Koln vs Schalke (0-0)BundesligaFC Koln Win 3.35 33.4% lost2026-10-24 15:18:02 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
10322026-10-24Liaoning Tieren vs Zhejiang Professional (2-4)Chinese Super LeagueLiaoning Tieren Win 2.45 42.8% lost2026-10-24 06:16:43 pre-kickoff
10292026-10-24Stoke vs Bristol City (0-0)ChampionshipStoke Win 2.57 40.3% lost2026-10-23 18:14:49 pre-kickoff
10122026-10-24Atl. Madrid vs Dep. A Coruna (1-0)La LigaBTTS 2.13 48.7% lost2026-10-21 21:06:16 pre-kickoff
10112026-10-24Kalmar vs Brommapojkarna (0-3)AllsvenskanBTTS 1.61 62.8% lost2026-10-21 21:06:16 pre-kickoff
10072026-10-24Portsmouth vs Millwall (2-1)ChampionshipBTTS 1.74 60.0% won2026-10-21 12:04:19 pre-kickoff
10062026-10-24Chongqing Tonglianglong vs Qingdao Hainiu (2-0)Chinese Super LeagueBTTS 2.11 48.3% lost2026-10-21 12:04:19 pre-kickoff
10042026-10-24Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin (2-0)Liga Profesional Argentina - ClausuraBTTS 1.97 55.6% lost2026-10-20 21:01:33 pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix
9942026-10-24Lens vs Paris FC (2-1)Ligue 1Lens Win 2.43 42.4% won2026-10-19 02:54:05 pre-kickoff
9842026-10-24Samsunspor vs Amedspor (1-2)Süper LigAmedspor Win 2.76 37.9% won2026-10-18 11:51:24 pre-kickoff
9772026-10-24Banfield vs Lanus (1-1)Liga Profesional Argentina - ClausuraLanus Win 2.47 42.4% lost2026-10-17 20:48:34 pre-kickoff
9762026-10-24Willem II vs Cambuur (1-6)EredivisieCambuur Win 2.86 36.0% won2026-10-17 20:48:34 pre-kickoff
9752026-10-24Kalmar vs Brommapojkarna (0-3)AllsvenskanOver 2.5 goals 1.71 60.6% won2026-10-17 20:48:34 pre-kickoff
9582026-10-24Paderborn vs Hamburger SV (1-0)BundesligaPaderborn Win 2.37 43.4% won2026-10-16 20:43:54 pre-kickoff
9512026-10-24Augsburg vs Union Berlin (1-1)BundesligaAugsburg Win 1.94 53.3% lost2026-10-16 11:41:34 pre-kickoff
10032026-10-23Torino vs Monza (3-2)Serie ABTTS 1.79 56.4% won2026-10-20 21:01:33 pre-kickoff
9502026-10-23Brest vs Nice (1-2)Ligue 1Brest Win 2.28 45.2% lost2026-10-16 11:41:34 pre-kickoff
10262026-10-22FK Borac Banja Luka vs KuPS Kuopio (2-0)ECLFK Borac Banja Luka Win 1.79 58.5% won2026-10-22 18:11:07 pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix
10252026-10-22AS Monaco vs SC Freiburg (3-0)ECLAS Monaco Win 2.47 42.2% won2026-10-22 18:11:07 pre-kickoff
10222026-10-22Monaco vs Freiburg (3-0)UEFA Conference League - League PhaseMonaco Win 2.47 42.2% won2026-10-22 18:11:07 pre-kickoff
10212026-10-22Borac Banja Luka vs KuPS (2-0)UEFA Conference League - League PhaseBorac Banja Luka Win 1.79 58.5% won2026-10-22 18:11:07 pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix
10192026-10-22Ferencvaros vs Torreense (4-1)UEFA Europa League - League PhaseBTTS 2.06 49.3% won2026-10-22 12:09:52 pre-kickoff
10102026-10-22Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht (0-3)UEFA Europa League - League PhaseJagiellonia Win 3.21 32.8% lost2026-10-21 21:06:16 pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix
10092026-10-22Toluca vs Club Tijuana (2-2)Liga MXBTTS 1.77 57.6% won2026-10-21 18:05:34 pre-kickoff
10052026-10-22Pachuca vs Cruz Azul (1-2)Liga MXBTTS 1.60 63.8% won2026-10-21 06:03:17 pre-kickoff
9902026-10-22Ajax vs Atalanta BC (2-0)ECLAjax Win 2.76 39.5% won2026-10-18 17:52:27 pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix
9892026-10-22Ajax vs Atalanta (2-0)UEFA Conference League - League PhaseAjax Win 2.76 39.5% won2026-10-18 17:52:27 pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix
9882026-10-22Pachuca vs Cruz Azul (1-2)Liga MXOver 2.5 goals 1.70 63.0% won2026-10-18 17:52:27 pre-kickoff
9872026-10-22FC Iberia 1999 vs Mjällby AIF (1-1)ECLMjällby AIF Win 2.23 46.8% lost2026-10-18 14:51:54 pre-kickoff
9862026-10-22Iberia 1999 vs Mjallby (1-1)UEFA Conference League - League PhaseMjallby Win 2.23 46.8% lost2026-10-18 14:51:54 pre-kickoff
9492026-10-22Besiktas vs Crystal Palace (2-2)UEFA Europa League - League PhaseOver 2.5 goals 1.69 62.4% won2026-10-16 11:41:34 pre-kickoff
9482026-10-22Montevideo City vs Atletico-MG (2-0)CONMEBOL Sudamericana - Semi-finalsMontevideo City Win 2.84 36.9% won2026-10-16 11:41:34 pre-kickoff
9952026-10-21Vasco vs Boca Juniors (1-3)CONMEBOL Sudamericana - Semi-finalsVasco Win 2.71 38.1% lost2026-10-19 08:55:10 pre-kickoff
9822026-10-21Kawasaki Frontale vs Vissel Kobe (2-1)J1 LeagueOver 2.5 goals 1.72 59.0% won2026-10-18 08:50:53 pre-kickoff
9692026-10-21Urawa Reds vs Chiba (3-2)J1 LeagueOver 2.5 goals 1.77 59.7% won2026-10-17 11:46:51 pre-kickoff
9542026-10-21Kyoto vs Kashima Antlers (2-2)J1 LeagueOver 2.5 goals 1.69 63.2% won2026-10-16 14:42:32 pre-kickoff
9472026-10-21Club Brugge KV vs Lens (3-0)UEFA Champions League - League PhaseOver 2.5 goals 1.66 65.3% won2026-10-16 11:41:34 pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix
9462026-10-21Lille vs Galatasaray (2-4)UEFA Champions League - League PhaseOver 2.5 goals 1.71 62.2% won2026-10-16 11:41:34 pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix
9282026-10-21Vasco da Gama vs Boca Juniors (1-3)CONSUDVasco da Gama Win 2.76 37.4% lost2026-10-14 20:34:25 pre-kickoff
9972026-10-20Manchester City vs AEK Athens (5-1)UEFA Champions League - League PhaseBTTS 2.23 51.3% won2026-10-19 20:57:03 pre-kickoff

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