Public pick log
Settled picks only, newest first
Only picks that have been settled appear here, so nothing on this page is a live pick. Wins, losses and voids are all listed. Picks issued after kick-off, and picks touched by a past settlement repair, are shown and flagged rather than hidden. 18+ | Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future results.
Summary
As of 2026-11-03, excluding picks issued after kick-off: 550 settled picks (285 won, 265 lost). Flat 1-unit stake ROI is +1.54% with a 95% interval of -7.1% to +10.2% (normal approximation). The interval includes zero: this is not evidence of an edge.
Closing-line value: 138 picks (25.1%) have a stored closing price; mean difference to close +9.12%. This mostly reflects taking the best price across bookmakers and comparing it with a single closing price that still includes the bookmaker's margin. It is not evidence that the model predicts better than the market.
How we measure this · Model methodology
Log
1067 picks. Download CSV (rate-limited).
| # | Match date | Match | League | Market | Odds | Model prob. | Outcome | Issued (UTC) | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 980 | 2026-10-20 | AS Roma vs Slovan Bratislava (4-0) | UEFA Champions League - League Phase | BTTS | 1.98 | 55.1% | lost | 2026-10-18 05:50:19 | pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix |
| 996 | 2026-10-19 | Al Fayha vs Al Ahli SC (2-3) | Saudi League | Over 2.5 goals | 1.68 | 61.0% | won | 2026-10-19 14:55:58 | pre-kickoff |
| 983 | 2026-10-19 | Monza vs Cagliari (4-0) | Serie A | Cagliari Win | 3.30 | 31.8% | lost | 2026-10-18 11:51:24 | pre-kickoff |
| 974 | 2026-10-19 | Al Hilal vs Al Hazem (1-0) | Saudi League | BTTS | 2.17 | 50.7% | lost | 2026-10-17 20:48:34 | pre-kickoff |
| 957 | 2026-10-19 | Al Fayha vs Al Ahli SC (2-3) | Saudi League | BTTS | 1.73 | 59.6% | won | 2026-10-16 20:43:54 | pre-kickoff |
| 945 | 2026-10-19 | Trabzonspor vs Besiktas (2-0) | Süper Lig | Trabzonspor Win | 2.98 | 35.3% | won | 2026-10-16 11:41:34 | pre-kickoff |
| 900 | 2026-10-19 | Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano (1-1) | La Liga | Getafe Win | 2.96 | 35.1% | lost | 2026-10-08 02:04:31 | pre-kickoff |
| 985 | 2026-10-18 | Odense vs Brondby (2-1) | Superliga | Odense Win | 1.78 | 69.5% | won | 2026-10-18 14:51:54 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 981 | 2026-10-18 | Sonderjyske vs Silkeborg (4-0) | Superliga | Over 2.5 goals | 1.68 | 60.4% | won | 2026-10-18 08:50:53 | pre-kickoff |
| 978 | 2026-10-18 | New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC (0-2) | MLS - Regular season | New York Red Bulls Win | 2.47 | 48.0% | lost | 2026-10-17 23:49:05 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 973 | 2026-10-18 | Lyon vs Nice (2-1) | Ligue 1 | Lyon Win | 1.86 | 55.5% | won | 2026-10-17 20:48:34 | pre-kickoff |
| 972 | 2026-10-18 | Kocaelispor vs Goztepe (1-2) | Süper Lig | Kocaelispor Win | 3.11 | 33.9% | lost | 2026-10-17 20:48:34 | pre-kickoff |
| 964 | 2026-10-18 | Machida vs Avispa Fukuoka (3-0) | J1 League | BTTS | 1.85 | 55.5% | lost | 2026-10-17 05:45:43 | pre-kickoff |
| 963 | 2026-10-18 | Toluca vs Atl. San Luis (1-1) | Liga MX | BTTS | 1.67 | 62.5% | won | 2026-10-17 05:45:43 | pre-kickoff |
| 944 | 2026-10-18 | AC Milan vs Atalanta (3-2) | Serie A | AC Milan Win | 1.91 | 54.0% | won | 2026-10-16 11:41:34 | pre-kickoff |
| 924 | 2026-10-18 | Leeds vs Manchester Utd (1-1) | Premier League | Leeds Win | 2.90 | 35.7% | lost | 2026-10-10 17:18:40 | pre-kickoff |
| 909 | 2026-10-18 | Fluminense vs Santos (1-2) | Serie A | Fluminense Win | 2.25 | 46.1% | lost | 2026-10-09 17:13:14 | pre-kickoff |
| 905 | 2026-10-18 | Zwolle vs G.A. Eagles (4-1) | Eredivisie | G.A. Eagles Win | 2.31 | 44.9% | lost | 2026-10-08 14:07:17 | pre-kickoff |
| 879 | 2026-10-18 | Paris FC vs Rennes (4-3) | Ligue 1 | Paris FC Win | 2.34 | 44.0% | won | 2026-10-04 01:48:01 | pre-kickoff |
| 971 | 2026-10-17 | Derby vs Stoke (0-1) | Championship | Stoke Win | 2.96 | 35.3% | won | 2026-10-17 14:47:27 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 968 | 2026-10-17 | AIK vs Goteborg (2-2) | Allsvenskan | Over 2.5 goals | 1.68 | 64.2% | won | 2026-10-17 11:46:51 | pre-kickoff |
| 967 | 2026-10-17 | AIK vs Goteborg (2-2) | Allsvenskan | AIK Win | 2.84 | 36.4% | lost | 2026-10-17 11:46:51 | pre-kickoff |
| 966 | 2026-10-17 | Platense vs Lanus (0-1) | Liga Profesional Argentina - Clausura | Lanus Win | 2.90 | 35.7% | won | 2026-10-17 08:46:18 | pre-kickoff |
| 962 | 2026-10-17 | Lille vs Brest (1-1) | Ligue 1 | Lille Win | 2.08 | 49.3% | lost | 2026-10-17 05:45:43 | pre-kickoff |
| 961 | 2026-10-17 | Fulham vs Hull (1-0) | Premier League | BTTS | 1.83 | 55.6% | lost | 2026-10-17 05:45:43 | pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix |
| 960 | 2026-10-17 | Mito vs Urawa Reds (0-1) | J1 League | BTTS | 1.88 | 56.1% | lost | 2026-10-17 05:45:43 | pre-kickoff |
| 959 | 2026-10-17 | Necaxa vs Atlas (0-2) | Liga MX | Atlas Win | 2.25 | 45.8% | won | 2026-10-17 02:44:51 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 956 | 2026-10-17 | HamKam vs Bodo/Glimt (0-2) | Eliteserien | BTTS | 1.79 | 56.8% | lost | 2026-10-16 20:43:54 | pre-kickoff |
| 955 | 2026-10-17 | Watford vs Charlton (2-0) | Championship | BTTS | 1.76 | 57.4% | lost | 2026-10-16 20:43:54 | pre-kickoff |
| 953 | 2026-10-17 | Amedspor vs Konyaspor (1-0) | Süper Lig | Amedspor Win | 1.96 | 52.4% | won | 2026-10-16 14:42:32 | pre-kickoff |
| 943 | 2026-10-17 | Ind. Rivadavia vs Tigre (2-2) | Liga Profesional Argentina - Clausura | BTTS | 2.06 | 52.6% | won | 2026-10-16 11:41:34 | pre-kickoff |
| 942 | 2026-10-17 | AIK vs Goteborg (2-2) | Allsvenskan | BTTS | 1.50 | 68.0% | won | 2026-10-16 11:41:34 | pre-kickoff |
| 941 | 2026-10-17 | Villarreal vs Elche (0-0) | La Liga | BTTS | 1.68 | 62.0% | lost | 2026-10-16 11:41:34 | pre-kickoff |
| 940 | 2026-10-17 | Manchester City vs Ipswich (3-2) | Premier League | BTTS | 1.84 | 57.7% | won | 2026-10-16 11:41:34 | pre-kickoff |
| 939 | 2026-10-17 | Genclerbirligi vs Galatasaray (0-1) | Süper Lig | BTTS | 1.65 | 61.9% | lost | 2026-10-16 11:41:34 | pre-kickoff |
| 917 | 2026-10-17 | Necaxa vs Atlas (0-2) | Liga MX | Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 61.3% | lost | 2026-10-10 05:16:17 | pre-kickoff |
| 878 | 2026-10-17 | Everton vs Chelsea (0-2) | Premier League | Everton Win | 2.91 | 35.7% | lost | 2026-10-03 01:44:48 | pre-kickoff |
| 938 | 2026-10-16 | Le Mans vs Toulouse (0-3) | Ligue 1 | BTTS | 1.54 | 67.3% | lost | 2026-10-16 11:41:34 | pre-kickoff |
| 912 | 2026-10-16 | Burnley vs Wolves (1-2) | Championship | Over 2.5 goals | 1.69 | 59.9% | won | 2026-10-09 20:14:05 | pre-kickoff |
| 911 | 2026-10-16 | Widzew Lodz vs Wisla (0-0) | Ekstraklasa | Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 60.7% | lost | 2026-10-09 20:14:05 | pre-kickoff |
| 874 | 2026-10-16 | Le Mans vs Toulouse (0-3) | Ligue 1 | Over 2.5 goals | 1.76 | 62.8% | won | 2026-10-02 13:43:14 | pre-kickoff |
| 937 | 2026-10-15 | FC Copenhagen vs SC Braga (3-0) | UECL | FC Copenhagen Win | 2.65 | 39.1% | won | 2026-10-15 17:38:16 | pre-kickoff |
| 936 | 2026-10-15 | Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe (1-1) | UECL | Getafe Win | 3.50 | 32.3% | lost | 2026-10-15 17:38:16 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 935 | 2026-10-15 | Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe (1-1) | UECL | Draw | 3.16 | 35.9% | won | 2026-10-15 17:38:16 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 934 | 2026-10-15 | KF Egnatia vs FC Midtjylland (1-1) | UECL | FC Midtjylland Win | 1.97 | 56.1% | lost | 2026-10-15 17:38:16 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 933 | 2026-10-15 | FC Lugano vs Red Star Belgrade | UECL | FC Lugano Win | 2.41 | 44.9% | void | 2026-10-15 17:38:16 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 932 | 2026-10-15 | Riga FC vs FC Kairat (1-1) | UECL | Riga FC Win | 2.27 | 47.2% | lost | 2026-10-15 17:38:16 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 931 | 2026-10-15 | Gent vs AGF Aarhus (1-0) | UECL | Gent Win | 1.96 | 55.6% | won | 2026-10-15 17:38:16 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 930 | 2026-10-15 | Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe (1-1) | UECL | Universitatea Craiova Win | 3.30 | 32.2% | lost | 2026-10-15 14:37:29 | pre-kickoff |
| 929 | 2026-10-15 | St. Louis City SC vs Vancouver Whitecaps FC (0-0) | MLS | St. Louis City SC Win | 3.06 | 34.6% | lost | 2026-10-15 02:35:09 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |