Public pick log
Settled picks only, newest first
Only picks that have been settled appear here, so nothing on this page is a live pick. Wins, losses and voids are all listed. Picks issued after kick-off, and picks touched by a past settlement repair, are shown and flagged rather than hidden. 18+ | Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future results.
Summary
As of 2026-11-03, excluding picks issued after kick-off: 550 settled picks (285 won, 265 lost). Flat 1-unit stake ROI is +1.54% with a 95% interval of -7.1% to +10.2% (normal approximation). The interval includes zero: this is not evidence of an edge.
Closing-line value: 138 picks (25.1%) have a stored closing price; mean difference to close +9.12%. This mostly reflects taking the best price across bookmakers and comparing it with a single closing price that still includes the bookmaker's margin. It is not evidence that the model predicts better than the market.
How we measure this · Model methodology
Log
1067 picks. Download CSV (rate-limited).
| # | Match date | Match | League | Market | Odds | Model prob. | Outcome | Issued (UTC) | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 880 | 2026-10-15 | Colorado Rapids vs Minnesota United (2-2) | MLS - Regular season | Over 2.5 goals | 1.66 | 61.6% | won | 2026-10-04 13:49:49 | pre-kickoff |
| 925 | 2026-10-13 | Millwall vs Swansea (0-1) | Championship | BTTS | 1.69 | 60.3% | lost | 2026-10-10 20:19:12 | pre-kickoff |
| 908 | 2026-10-13 | Villarreal vs Napoli (3-1) | UEFA Champions League - League Phase | Napoli Win | 3.40 | 30.9% | lost | 2026-10-09 17:13:14 | pre-kickoff |
| 873 | 2026-10-13 | Villarreal vs Napoli (3-1) | UEFA Champions League - League Phase | Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 60.8% | won | 2026-10-01 01:38:48 | pre-kickoff |
| 872 | 2026-10-13 | Atl. Madrid vs Manchester Utd (2-0) | UEFA Champions League - League Phase | Atl. Madrid Win | 2.28 | 45.2% | won | 2026-10-01 01:38:48 | pre-kickoff |
| 927 | 2026-10-12 | Coritiba vs Botafogo (1-1) | BSA | Botafogo Win | 3.35 | 31.5% | lost | 2026-10-12 20:27:24 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 887 | 2026-10-12 | Torino vs Udinese (2-1) | Serie A | Udinese Win | 3.35 | 31.4% | lost | 2026-10-06 13:57:21 | pre-kickoff |
| 884 | 2026-10-12 | Coventry vs Newcastle (4-1) | Premier League | Newcastle Win | 2.23 | 46.1% | lost | 2026-10-05 19:54:23 | pre-kickoff |
| 926 | 2026-10-11 | Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes (1-1) | MLS | Colorado Rapids Win | 2.01 | 61.6% | lost | 2026-10-11 02:20:30 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 923 | 2026-10-11 | Rennes vs Auxerre (4-1) | Ligue 1 | BTTS | 1.66 | 61.3% | won | 2026-10-10 17:18:40 | pre-kickoff |
| 922 | 2026-10-11 | Utrecht vs Willem II (3-1) | Eredivisie | BTTS | 1.63 | 62.3% | won | 2026-10-10 17:18:40 | pre-kickoff |
| 920 | 2026-10-11 | Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Lodz (2-1) | Ekstraklasa | BTTS | 1.81 | 57.2% | won | 2026-10-10 14:17:54 | pre-kickoff |
| 916 | 2026-10-11 | Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes (2-0) | Primeira Liga | BTTS | 1.97 | 51.6% | lost | 2026-10-10 05:16:17 | pre-kickoff |
| 913 | 2026-10-11 | Arouca vs Estrela (1-0) | Primeira Liga | BTTS | 1.66 | 61.3% | lost | 2026-10-09 23:14:45 | pre-kickoff |
| 907 | 2026-10-11 | Al Fayha vs Al Riyadh (1-1) | Saudi League | BTTS | 1.72 | 61.8% | won | 2026-10-09 14:12:43 | pre-kickoff |
| 906 | 2026-10-11 | Atletico-MG vs Santos (2-1) | Serie A | BTTS | 1.77 | 57.7% | won | 2026-10-09 05:10:24 | pre-kickoff |
| 904 | 2026-10-11 | Liverpool vs Manchester City (0-3) | Premier League | Manchester City Win | 2.64 | 39.2% | won | 2026-10-08 14:07:17 | pre-kickoff |
| 892 | 2026-10-11 | FC Koln vs B. Monchengladbach (2-1) | Bundesliga | FC Koln Win | 2.06 | 49.9% | won | 2026-10-07 11:01:11 | pre-kickoff |
| 886 | 2026-10-11 | Como vs AS Roma (0-0) | Serie A | AS Roma Win | 2.80 | 36.8% | lost | 2026-10-06 13:57:21 | pre-kickoff |
| 883 | 2026-10-11 | Sassuolo vs AC Milan (1-1) | Serie A | Over 2.5 goals | 1.79 | 59.3% | lost | 2026-10-05 19:54:23 | pre-kickoff |
| 881 | 2026-10-11 | Legia vs Wisla (2-0) | Ekstraklasa | Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 60.3% | lost | 2026-10-04 19:50:41 | pre-kickoff |
| 871 | 2026-10-11 | KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden (4-3) | First Division A | Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 61.2% | won | 2026-10-01 01:38:48 | pre-kickoff |
| 870 | 2026-10-11 | Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Lodz (2-1) | Ekstraklasa | Over 2.5 goals | 1.71 | 59.6% | won | 2026-10-01 01:38:48 | pre-kickoff |
| 921 | 2026-10-10 | Toronto FC vs CF Montreal (2-1) | MLS - Regular season | Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 61.4% | won | 2026-10-10 17:18:40 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 919 | 2026-10-10 | Union Berlin vs Elversberg (1-0) | Bundesliga | Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 62.7% | lost | 2026-10-10 11:17:19 | pre-kickoff |
| 918 | 2026-10-10 | Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze (1-3) | Ekstraklasa | Gornik Zabrze Win | 2.76 | 37.4% | won | 2026-10-10 08:16:51 | pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix |
| 915 | 2026-10-10 | TPS vs Jaro (0-1) | Veikkausliiga - Relegation Group | TPS Win | 2.20 | 46.9% | lost | 2026-10-10 02:15:21 | pre-kickoff |
| 914 | 2026-10-10 | Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor (0-0) | Süper Lig | Alanyaspor Win | 2.00 | 51.7% | lost | 2026-10-10 02:15:21 | pre-kickoff |
| 910 | 2026-10-10 | Blackburn vs Cardiff (2-1) | Championship | Blackburn Win | 2.92 | 35.3% | won | 2026-10-09 20:14:05 | pre-kickoff |
| 903 | 2026-10-10 | Inter vs Parma (3-0) | Serie A | BTTS | 2.21 | 45.9% | lost | 2026-10-08 14:07:17 | pre-kickoff |
| 901 | 2026-10-10 | Vasco vs Remo (0-0) | Serie A | BTTS | 1.98 | 51.0% | lost | 2026-10-08 05:04:54 | pre-kickoff |
| 899 | 2026-10-10 | Huachipato vs O'Higgins (2-0) | Primera División | BTTS | 1.59 | 65.1% | lost | 2026-10-08 02:04:31 | pre-kickoff |
| 897 | 2026-10-10 | Ajax vs Nijmegen (1-1) | Eredivisie | BTTS | 1.56 | 66.7% | won | 2026-10-07 20:03:13 | pre-kickoff |
| 896 | 2026-10-10 | PSG vs Le Mans (3-1) | Ligue 1 | BTTS | 2.18 | 50.1% | won | 2026-10-07 20:03:13 | pre-kickoff |
| 895 | 2026-10-10 | Watford vs Burnley (0-4) | Championship | Watford Win | 3.16 | 33.3% | lost | 2026-10-07 20:03:13 | pre-kickoff |
| 894 | 2026-10-10 | Chelsea vs Bournemouth (5-1) | Premier League | BTTS | 1.55 | 67.0% | won | 2026-10-07 14:01:59 | pre-kickoff |
| 893 | 2026-10-10 | Genoa vs Fiorentina (2-1) | Serie A | BTTS | 1.87 | 55.0% | won | 2026-10-07 14:01:59 | pre-kickoff |
| 891 | 2026-10-10 | FC Tokyo vs Urawa Reds (3-0) | J1 League | BTTS | 1.61 | 62.8% | lost | 2026-10-07 11:01:11 | pre-kickoff |
| 890 | 2026-10-10 | Union de Santa Fe vs Defensa y Justicia (0-2) | Liga Profesional Argentina - Clausura | BTTS | 1.82 | 56.7% | lost | 2026-10-07 01:59:22 | pre-kickoff |
| 889 | 2026-10-10 | Swansea vs Norwich (2-1) | Championship | Swansea Win | 2.52 | 41.0% | won | 2026-10-06 19:58:21 | pre-kickoff |
| 885 | 2026-10-10 | Instituto vs Boca Juniors (2-2) | Liga Profesional Argentina - Clausura | Instituto Win | 3.50 | 30.4% | lost | 2026-10-06 07:56:21 | pre-kickoff |
| 882 | 2026-10-10 | FC Tokyo vs Urawa Reds (3-0) | J1 League | Over 2.5 goals | 1.77 | 59.4% | won | 2026-10-05 07:52:38 | pre-kickoff |
| 869 | 2026-10-10 | Watford vs Burnley (0-4) | Championship | Over 2.5 goals | 1.78 | 56.8% | won | 2026-10-01 01:38:48 | pre-kickoff |
| 867 | 2026-10-10 | Huachipato vs O'Higgins (2-0) | Primera División | Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 62.0% | lost | 2026-09-26 01:34:02 | pre-kickoff |
| 866 | 2026-10-10 | Lille vs Le Havre (1-0) | Ligue 1 | Over 2.5 goals | 1.79 | 57.5% | lost | 2026-09-26 01:34:02 | pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix |
| 898 | 2026-10-09 | Fluminense vs Coritiba (4-0) | Serie A | BTTS | 2.02 | 50.3% | lost | 2026-10-08 02:04:31 | pre-kickoff |
| 888 | 2026-10-09 | Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin (1-3) | Liga Profesional Argentina - Clausura | BTTS | 2.00 | 53.6% | won | 2026-10-06 19:58:21 | pre-kickoff |
| 876 | 2026-10-09 | Nautico vs Novorizontino (0-2) | Serie B | Novorizontino Win | 3.28 | 32.0% | won | 2026-10-02 19:44:03 | pre-kickoff |
| 902 | 2026-10-08 | KuPS vs AC Oulu (0-1) | Veikkausliiga - Championship Group | BTTS | 2.06 | 49.1% | lost | 2026-10-08 14:07:17 | pre-kickoff |
| 875 | 2026-10-08 | Vila Nova FC vs Cuiaba (0-0) | Serie B | Vila Nova FC Win | 2.08 | 50.0% | lost | 2026-10-02 19:44:03 | pre-kickoff |