Public pick log
Settled picks only, newest first
Only picks that have been settled appear here, so nothing on this page is a live pick. Wins, losses and voids are all listed. Picks issued after kick-off, and picks touched by a past settlement repair, are shown and flagged rather than hidden. 18+ | Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future results.
Summary
As of 2026-11-03, excluding picks issued after kick-off: 551 settled picks (286 won, 265 lost). Flat 1-unit stake ROI is +1.70% with a 95% interval of -6.9% to +10.3% (normal approximation). The interval includes zero: this is not evidence of an edge.
Closing-line value: 138 picks (25.0%) have a stored closing price; mean difference to close +9.12%. This mostly reflects taking the best price across bookmakers and comparing it with a single closing price that still includes the bookmaker's margin. It is not evidence that the model predicts better than the market.
How we measure this · Model methodology
Log
1068 picks. Download CSV (rate-limited).
| # | Match date | Match | League | Market | Odds | Model prob. | Outcome | Issued (UTC) | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 619 | 2026-07-07 | Botafogo SP vs Avai (3-1) | Serie B | BTTS | 2.20 | 46.3% | won | 2026-07-06 20:44:41 | pre-kickoff |
| 617 | 2026-07-06 | Hacken vs Djurgarden (2-4) | Allsvenskan | BTTS | 1.52 | 66.8% | won | 2026-07-03 22:45:40 | pre-kickoff |
| 616 | 2026-07-04 | Jaro vs Ilves (2-1) | Veikkausliiga | BTTS | 1.57 | 65.0% | won | 2026-07-03 22:45:40 | pre-kickoff |
| 615 | 2026-07-04 | Dalian Yingbo vs Wuhan Three Towns (3-2) | Chinese Super League | Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 58.4% | won | 2026-06-30 01:20:47 | pre-kickoff |
| 614 | 2026-07-04 | Jaro vs Ilves (2-1) | Veikkausliiga | Over 2.5 goals | 1.69 | 63.0% | won | 2026-06-27 20:32:29 | pre-kickoff |
| 613 | 2026-07-03 | Derry City vs Waterford (2-4) | Premier Division | Over 2.5 goals | 1.72 | 59.3% | won | 2026-06-27 00:46:23 | pre-kickoff |
| 612 | 2026-06-28 | Atletico GO vs Ponte Preta (2-0) | Serie B | BTTS | 2.16 | 47.1% | lost | 2026-06-25 21:31:11 | pre-kickoff |
| 611 | 2026-06-27 | Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns (1-0) | Chinese Super League | BTTS | 1.58 | 65.3% | lost | 2026-06-24 14:53:07 | pre-kickoff |
| 610 | 2026-06-20 | Londrina vs Athletic Club (2-0) | Serie B | BTTS | 1.91 | 53.0% | lost | 2026-06-17 19:54:37 | pre-kickoff |
| 605 | 2026-06-14 | U. Catolica vs U. De Concepcion (5-1) | Primera División | Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 60.6% | won | 2026-06-06 09:39:38 | pre-kickoff |
| 609 | 2026-06-13 | Coquimbo vs O'Higgins (0-0) | Primera División | BTTS | 1.84 | 56.8% | lost | 2026-06-10 18:37:23 | pre-kickoff |
| 604 | 2026-06-13 | A. Italiano vs La Serena (1-1) | Primera División | Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 61.2% | lost | 2026-06-06 09:39:38 | pre-kickoff |
| 607 | 2026-06-12 | Galway vs Dundalk (0-1) | Premier Division | BTTS | 1.56 | 65.3% | lost | 2026-06-09 20:46:14 | pre-kickoff |
| 603 | 2026-06-12 | Galway vs Dundalk (0-1) | Premier Division | Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 64.0% | lost | 2026-06-05 02:17:50 | pre-kickoff |
| 602 | 2026-06-12 | St. Patricks vs Drogheda (2-0) | Premier Division | Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 58.4% | lost | 2026-06-05 02:17:50 | pre-kickoff |
| 608 | 2026-06-11 | Sport Recife vs Athletic Club (1-1) | Serie B | BTTS | 2.12 | 47.9% | won | 2026-06-10 15:48:25 | pre-kickoff |
| 606 | 2026-06-06 | Criciuma vs Londrina (1-0) | Serie B | BTTS | 2.16 | 47.4% | lost | 2026-06-06 12:54:58 | pre-kickoff |
| 601 | 2026-05-25 | Paderborn vs Wolfsburg (2-1) | Bundesliga - Final | Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 55.7% | won | 2026-05-22 08:24:35 | pre-kickoff |
| 600 | 2026-05-23 | Celta Vigo vs Sevilla (1-0) | La Liga | Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 53.5% | lost | 2026-05-18 06:45:25 | pre-kickoff |
| 599 | 2026-05-20 | Freiburg vs Aston Villa (0-3) | UEFA Europa League - Final | Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 48.5% | won | 2026-05-18 00:41:42 | pre-kickoff |
| 598 | 2026-05-17 | Manchester Utd vs Nottingham (3-2) | Premier League | Over 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 51.4% | won | 2026-05-17 12:41:14 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 597 | 2026-05-17 | Nice vs Metz (0-0) | Ligue 1 - Regular season | Over 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 53.0% | lost | 2026-05-10 13:03:31 | pre-kickoff |
| 596 | 2026-05-17 | Marseille vs Rennes (3-1) | Ligue 1 | Over 2.5 goals | 2.06 | 56.6% | won | 2026-05-10 01:02:12 | pre-kickoff |
| 595 | 2026-05-13 | Brest vs Strasbourg (1-2) | Ligue 1 | Over 2.5 goals | 1.77 | 59.2% | won | 2026-05-09 19:01:48 | pre-kickoff |
| 594 | 2026-05-13 | Villarreal vs Sevilla (2-3) | La Liga | Over 2.5 goals | 1.77 | 57.8% | won | 2026-05-06 00:24:28 | pre-kickoff |
| 592 | 2026-05-10 | Sittard vs Zwolle (3-2) | Eredivisie - Regular season | Over 3.5 goals | 2.33 | 59.5% | won | 2026-05-03 08:11:26 | pre-kickoff |
| 591 | 2026-05-10 | Telstar vs Heracles (3-0) | Eredivisie - Regular season | Over 3.5 goals | 2.18 | 52.7% | lost | 2026-05-03 08:11:26 | pre-kickoff |
| 590 | 2026-05-10 | Fiorentina vs Genoa (0-0) | Serie A | Genoa Win | 3.82 | 27.2% | lost | 2026-05-03 08:11:26 | pre-kickoff |
| 589 | 2026-05-10 | Cremonese vs Pisa (3-0) | Serie A | Pisa Win | 4.67 | 23.1% | lost | 2026-05-03 08:11:26 | pre-kickoff |
| 588 | 2026-05-10 | AC Milan vs Atalanta (2-3) | Serie A | Atalanta Win | 3.72 | 28.1% | won | 2026-05-03 08:11:26 | pre-kickoff |
| 587 | 2026-05-10 | FC Koln vs Heidenheim (1-3) | Bundesliga | Over 3.5 goals | 2.33 | 43.6% | won | 2026-05-03 08:11:26 | pre-kickoff |
| 586 | 2026-05-10 | Hamburger SV vs Freiburg (3-2) | Bundesliga | Hamburger SV Win | 2.65 | 39.0% | won | 2026-05-03 08:11:26 | pre-kickoff |
| 585 | 2026-05-10 | Monaco vs Lille (0-1) | Ligue 1 | Over 2.5 goals | 1.58 | 68.3% | lost | 2026-05-03 08:11:26 | pre-kickoff |
| 584 | 2026-05-10 | Angers vs Strasbourg (1-1) | Ligue 1 | Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 54.8% | lost | 2026-05-03 08:11:26 | pre-kickoff |
| 583 | 2026-05-10 | Le Havre vs Marseille (0-1) | Ligue 1 | Le Havre Win | 3.71 | 28.3% | lost | 2026-05-03 08:11:26 | pre-kickoff |
| 582 | 2026-05-09 | Real Sociedad vs Betis (2-2) | La Liga | Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 60.8% | won | 2026-05-03 08:11:26 | pre-kickoff |
| 581 | 2026-05-09 | Elche vs Alaves (1-1) | La Liga | Elche Win | 2.25 | 45.2% | lost | 2026-05-03 08:11:26 | pre-kickoff |
| 580 | 2026-05-09 | Sevilla vs Espanyol (2-1) | La Liga | Over 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 50.2% | won | 2026-05-03 08:11:26 | pre-kickoff |
| 579 | 2026-05-09 | Sevilla vs Espanyol (2-1) | La Liga | Espanyol Win | 3.56 | 28.9% | lost | 2026-05-03 08:11:26 | pre-kickoff |
| 578 | 2026-05-09 | Widzew Lodz vs Lechia Gdansk (3-1) | Ekstraklasa | Over 2.5 goals | 1.87 | 57.1% | won | 2026-05-03 08:11:26 | pre-kickoff |
| 577 | 2026-05-09 | Lazio vs Inter (0-3) | Serie A | Over 2.5 goals | 1.78 | 57.8% | won | 2026-05-03 08:11:26 | pre-kickoff |
| 576 | 2026-05-09 | Cagliari vs Udinese (0-2) | Serie A | Over 2.5 goals | 2.19 | 50.2% | lost | 2026-05-03 08:11:26 | pre-kickoff |
| 575 | 2026-05-09 | Cagliari vs Udinese (0-2) | Serie A | Udinese Win | 2.96 | 34.4% | won | 2026-05-03 08:11:26 | pre-kickoff |
| 574 | 2026-05-09 | Sunderland vs Manchester Utd (0-0) | Premier League | Sunderland Win | 3.91 | 26.4% | lost | 2026-05-03 08:11:26 | pre-kickoff |
| 573 | 2026-05-09 | Fulham vs Bournemouth (0-1) | Premier League | Over 3.5 goals | 2.29 | 45.0% | lost | 2026-05-03 08:11:26 | pre-kickoff |
| 572 | 2026-05-09 | Fulham vs Bournemouth (0-1) | Premier League | Over 2.5 goals | 1.55 | 65.8% | lost | 2026-05-03 08:11:26 | pre-kickoff |
| 571 | 2026-05-09 | Fulham vs Bournemouth (0-1) | Premier League | Fulham Win | 2.58 | 39.6% | lost | 2026-05-03 08:11:26 | pre-kickoff |
| 566 | 2026-05-09 | Manchester City FC vs Brentford FC (3-0) | Premier League | Brentford FC Win | 7.86 | 15.8% | lost | 2026-05-03 00:17:18 | pre-kickoff |
| 565 | 2026-05-09 | Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs Wolverhampton Wanderers FC (3-0) | Premier League | Wolverhampton Wanderers FC Win | 9.04 | 14.6% | lost | 2026-05-03 00:17:18 | pre-kickoff |
| 564 | 2026-05-09 | Sunderland AFC vs Manchester United FC (0-0) | Premier League | Sunderland AFC Win | 3.91 | 28.5% | lost | 2026-05-03 00:17:18 | pre-kickoff |