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Public pick log

Settled picks only, newest first

Only picks that have been settled appear here, so nothing on this page is a live pick. Wins, losses and voids are all listed. Picks issued after kick-off, and picks touched by a past settlement repair, are shown and flagged rather than hidden. 18+ | Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future results.

Summary

As of 2026-11-03, excluding picks issued after kick-off: 551 settled picks (286 won, 265 lost). Flat 1-unit stake ROI is +1.70% with a 95% interval of -6.9% to +10.3% (normal approximation). The interval includes zero: this is not evidence of an edge.

Closing-line value: 138 picks (25.0%) have a stored closing price; mean difference to close +9.12%. This mostly reflects taking the best price across bookmakers and comparing it with a single closing price that still includes the bookmaker's margin. It is not evidence that the model predicts better than the market.

How we measure this · Model methodology

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1068 picks. Download CSV (rate-limited).

#Match dateMatchLeagueMarketOddsModel prob.OutcomeIssued (UTC)Flags
5632026-05-09US Lecce vs Juventus FC (0-1)Serie AUS Lecce Win 6.30 21.1% lost2026-05-03 00:17:18 pre-kickoff
5622026-05-09SS Lazio vs FC Internazionale Milano (0-3)Serie ASS Lazio Win 4.53 25.8% lost2026-05-03 00:17:18 pre-kickoff
5612026-05-09TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs SV Werder Bremen (1-0)BundesligaSV Werder Bremen Win 4.97 21.0% lost2026-05-03 00:17:18 pre-kickoff
5602026-05-09RB Leipzig vs FC St. Pauli 1910 (2-1)BundesligaFC St. Pauli 1910 Win 6.60 17.3% lost2026-05-03 00:17:18 pre-kickoff
5592026-05-09Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs Real Betis Balompié (2-2)Primera DivisionDraw 3.53 33.1% won2026-05-03 00:17:18 pre-kickoff
5582026-05-09Club Atlético de Madrid vs RC Celta de Vigo (0-1)Primera DivisionDraw 3.62 32.5% lost2026-05-03 00:17:18 pre-kickoff
5572026-05-09Sevilla FC vs RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (2-1)Primera DivisionDraw 3.38 34.1% lost2026-05-03 00:17:18 pre-kickoff
5562026-05-09Elche CF vs Deportivo Alavés (1-1)Primera DivisionDraw 3.19 35.4% won2026-05-03 00:17:18 pre-kickoff
5702026-05-08Lech Poznan vs Arka Gdynia (1-1)EkstraklasaOver 3.5 goals 2.33 47.9% lost2026-05-03 08:11:26 pre-kickoff
5432026-05-08Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt (3-2)BundesligaEintracht Frankfurt Win 5.41 19.8% lost2026-05-02 00:14:51 pre-kickoff
5422026-05-08Racing Club de Lens vs FC Nantes (1-0)Ligue 1FC Nantes Win 9.05 14.2% lost2026-05-02 00:14:51 pre-kickoff
5412026-05-08Levante UD vs CA Osasuna (3-2)Primera DivisionDraw 3.09 36.2% lost2026-05-02 00:14:51 pre-kickoff
5012026-05-08Lech Poznan vs Arka Gdynia (1-1)EkstraklasaOver 2.5 goals 1.51 68.9% lost2026-05-01 20:07:28 pre-kickoff
4962026-05-08Torino vs Sassuolo (2-1)Serie ASassuolo Win 3.28 32.6% lost2026-05-01 00:13:56 pre-kickoff
4952026-05-08Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt (3-2)BundesligaOver 3.5 goals 1.85 56.0% won2026-05-01 00:13:56 pre-kickoff
4942026-05-08Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt (3-2)BundesligaOver 2.5 goals 1.36 74.7% won2026-05-01 00:13:56 pre-kickoff
5692026-05-07Aston Villa vs Nottingham (4-0)UEFA Europa League - Semi-finalsOver 3.5 goals 3.15 34.2% won2026-05-03 08:11:26 pre-kickoff
4932026-05-07Freiburg vs Braga (3-1)UEFA Europa League - Semi-finalsDraw 3.25 32.2% lost2026-05-01 00:13:56 pre-kickoff
4922026-05-07Aston Villa vs Nottingham (4-0)UEFA Europa League - Semi-finalsOver 2.5 goals 2.02 54.8% won2026-05-01 00:13:56 pre-kickoff
4912026-05-07Aston Villa vs Nottingham (4-0)UEFA Europa League - Semi-finalsNottingham Win 4.63 22.7% lost2026-05-01 00:13:56 pre-kickoff
4872026-05-06Bayern Munich vs PSG (1-1)UEFA Champions League - Semi-finalsPSG Win 3.94 26.6% lost2026-04-29 00:12:24 pre-kickoff
5402026-05-05Arsenal FC vs Club Atlético de Madrid (1-0)UEFA Champions LeagueClub Atlético de Madrid Win 5.41 20.3% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5372026-05-04Everton FC vs Manchester City FC (3-3)Premier LeagueEverton FC Win 5.90 22.0% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5362026-05-04Chelsea FC vs Nottingham Forest FC (1-3)Premier LeagueNottingham Forest FC Win 4.63 22.4% won2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5312026-05-04AS Roma vs ACF Fiorentina (4-0)Serie AACF Fiorentina Win 5.10 21.0% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5302026-05-04US Cremonese vs SS Lazio (1-2)Serie AUS Cremonese Win 2.95 35.1% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5102026-05-04Sevilla FC vs Real Sociedad de Fútbol (1-0)Primera DivisionDraw 3.49 33.7% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
4862026-05-04Sporting Clube de Portugal vs Vitória SC (5-1)Primeira LigaVitória SC Win 9.82 11.6% lost2026-04-28 00:11:35 pre-kickoff
4852026-05-04Sporting Clube de Portugal vs Vitória SC (5-1)Primeira LigaDraw 5.70 24.7% lost2026-04-28 00:11:35 pre-kickoff
4832026-05-04Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk (3-1)EkstraklasaOver 2.5 goals 1.67 70.2% won2026-04-27 18:11:23 pre-kickoff
4822026-05-04Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk (3-1)EkstraklasaRadomiak Radom Win 2.23 46.0% won2026-04-27 18:11:23 pre-kickoff
4682026-05-04Sevilla vs Real Sociedad (1-0)La LigaOver 2.5 goals 1.92 54.2% lost2026-04-27 00:10:46 pre-kickoff
4672026-05-04Chelsea vs Nottingham (1-3)Premier LeagueNottingham Win 4.43 25.2% won2026-04-27 00:10:46 pre-kickoff
5932026-05-03FC Volendam vs Heerenveen (0-2)Eredivisie - Regular seasonOver 2.5 goals 1.62 63.3% lost2026-05-03 10:23:30 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
5682026-05-03Celta Vigo vs Elche (3-1)La LigaElche Win 4.72 22.0% lost2026-05-03 08:11:26 pre-kickoff
5672026-05-03Zaglebie vs Cracovia (0-0)EkstraklasaOver 2.5 goals 2.66 42.6% lost2026-05-03 08:11:26 pre-kickoff
5552026-05-03PEC Zwolle vs Heracles Almelo (1-0)EredivisieHeracles Almelo Win 6.29 17.6% lost2026-05-02 23:10:34 pre-kickoff
5522026-05-03RC Strasbourg Alsace vs Toulouse FC (1-2)Ligue 1RC Strasbourg Alsace Win 2.84 36.1% lost2026-05-02 18:16:46 pre-kickoff
5392026-05-03Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord Rotterdam (1-2)EredivisieFortuna Sittard Win 5.90 21.9% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5382026-05-03FC Volendam vs SC Heerenveen (0-2)EredivisieFC Volendam Win 3.16 32.6% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5352026-05-03AFC Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace FC (3-0)Premier LeagueCrystal Palace FC Win 4.92 21.4% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5292026-05-03FC Internazionale Milano vs Parma Calcio 1913 (2-0)Serie AParma Calcio 1913 Win 12.48 12.1% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5282026-05-03FC Internazionale Milano vs Parma Calcio 1913 (2-0)Serie ADraw 7.13 15.5% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5272026-05-03Juventus FC vs Hellas Verona FC (1-1)Serie AHellas Verona FC Win 13.35 11.7% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5262026-05-03Juventus FC vs Hellas Verona FC (1-1)Serie ADraw 7.12 15.5% won2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5252026-05-03US Sassuolo Calcio vs AC Milan (2-0)Serie AUS Sassuolo Calcio Win 4.53 26.1% won2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5242026-05-03Bologna FC 1909 vs Cagliari Calcio (0-0)Serie ACagliari Calcio Win 4.80 21.9% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5222026-05-03SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg (1-1)BundesligaSC Freiburg Win 2.57 39.5% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5212026-05-03Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund (1-0)BundesligaBorussia Mönchengladbach Win 3.76 30.1% won2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5202026-05-03FC St. Pauli 1910 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 (1-2)BundesligaOver 2.5 goals 2.16 53.3% won2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff

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