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Public pick log

Settled picks only, newest first

Only picks that have been settled appear here, so nothing on this page is a live pick. Wins, losses and voids are all listed. Picks issued after kick-off, and picks touched by a past settlement repair, are shown and flagged rather than hidden. 18+ | Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future results.

Summary

As of 2026-11-03, excluding picks issued after kick-off: 551 settled picks (286 won, 265 lost). Flat 1-unit stake ROI is +1.70% with a 95% interval of -6.9% to +10.3% (normal approximation). The interval includes zero: this is not evidence of an edge.

Closing-line value: 138 picks (25.0%) have a stored closing price; mean difference to close +9.12%. This mostly reflects taking the best price across bookmakers and comparing it with a single closing price that still includes the bookmaker's margin. It is not evidence that the model predicts better than the market.

How we measure this · Model methodology

Log

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1068 picks. Download CSV (rate-limited).

#Match dateMatchLeagueMarketOddsModel prob.OutcomeIssued (UTC)Flags
5192026-05-03FC St. Pauli 1910 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 (1-2)BundesligaFC St. Pauli 1910 Win 2.77 37.3% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5162026-05-03AJ Auxerre vs Angers SCO (3-1)Ligue 1Angers SCO Win 5.67 19.4% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5152026-05-03Lille OSC vs Le Havre AC (1-1)Ligue 1Le Havre AC Win 8.40 15.0% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5092026-05-03RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs Real Madrid CF (0-2)Primera DivisionDraw 3.73 32.2% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5082026-05-03Real Betis Balompié vs Real Oviedo (3-0)Primera DivisionDraw 4.15 30.2% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5072026-05-03Getafe CF vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (0-2)Primera DivisionDraw 3.37 34.4% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5062026-05-03RC Celta de Vigo vs Elche CF (3-1)Primera DivisionDraw 3.83 31.7% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
4972026-05-03Strasbourg vs Toulouse (1-2)Ligue 1Strasbourg Win 2.78 36.9% lost2026-05-01 18:14:28 pre-kickoff
4782026-05-03Lyon vs Rennes (4-2)Ligue 1Over 2.5 goals 1.73 60.2% won2026-04-27 12:11:10 pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix
4772026-05-03Sparta Rotterdam vs Go Ahead Eagles (2-2)EredivisieDraw 3.69 31.4% won2026-04-27 00:10:46 pre-kickoff
4762026-05-03PEC Zwolle vs Heracles Almelo (1-0)EredivisieDraw 4.33 28.6% lost2026-04-27 00:10:46 pre-kickoff
4752026-05-03Fortuna Sittard vs Feyenoord Rotterdam (1-2)EredivisieDraw 4.23 28.8% lost2026-04-27 00:10:46 pre-kickoff
4742026-05-03FC Volendam vs SC Heerenveen (0-2)EredivisieDraw 3.79 31.0% lost2026-04-27 00:10:46 pre-kickoff
4732026-05-03Rio Ave FC vs Gil Vicente FC (0-0)Primeira LigaDraw 3.21 34.6% won2026-04-27 00:10:46 pre-kickoff
4722026-05-03Sporting Clube de Braga vs GD Estoril Praia (1-1)Primeira LigaDraw 4.28 29.0% won2026-04-27 00:10:46 pre-kickoff
4712026-05-03Casa Pia AC vs CD Tondela (0-1)Primeira LigaDraw 3.06 35.7% lost2026-04-27 00:10:46 pre-kickoff
4662026-05-03B. Monchengladbach vs Dortmund (1-0)BundesligaDortmund Win 1.86 54.5% lost2026-04-27 00:10:46 pre-kickoff
4652026-05-03Lyon vs Rennes (4-2)Ligue 1Lyon Win 2.33 43.7% won2026-04-27 00:10:46 pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix
4622026-05-03Sittard vs Feyenoord (1-2)Eredivisie - Regular seasonOver 2.5 goals 1.52 70.8% won2026-04-26 18:10:36 pre-kickoff
4612026-05-03AZ Alkmaar vs Twente (2-2)Eredivisie - Regular seasonOver 2.5 goals 1.44 70.7% won2026-04-26 18:10:36 pre-kickoff
4602026-05-03Zaglebie vs Cracovia (0-0)EkstraklasaZaglebie Win 2.67 39.6% lost2026-04-26 18:10:36 pre-kickoff
4452026-05-03Paris FC vs Brest (4-0)Ligue 1Over 2.5 goals 1.93 61.6% won2026-04-26 00:36:08 pre-kickoff
4442026-05-03Celta Vigo vs Elche (3-1)La LigaOver 2.5 goals 1.80 57.2% won2026-04-26 00:36:08 pre-kickoff
4432026-05-03Betis vs Oviedo (3-0)La LigaOver 2.5 goals 1.89 58.4% won2026-04-26 00:36:08 pre-kickoff
4422026-05-03Bologna vs Cagliari (0-0)Serie ACagliari Win 5.26 21.0% lost2026-04-26 00:36:08 pre-kickoff
4412026-05-03Sittard vs Feyenoord (1-2)Eredivisie - Regular seasonOver 3.5 goals 2.17 51.4% lost2026-04-26 00:36:08 pre-kickoff
4402026-05-03FC Volendam vs Heerenveen (0-2)Eredivisie - Regular seasonFC Volendam Win 3.35 30.6% lost2026-04-26 00:36:08 pre-kickoff
4392026-05-03AZ Alkmaar vs Twente (2-2)Eredivisie - Regular seasonOver 3.5 goals 2.17 50.0% won2026-04-26 00:36:08 pre-kickoff
4382026-05-03Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace (3-0)Premier LeagueCrystal Palace Win 4.37 24.4% lost2026-04-26 00:36:08 pre-kickoff
4372026-05-03St. Pauli vs Mainz (1-2)BundesligaOver 2.5 goals 2.08 50.2% won2026-04-26 00:36:08 pre-kickoff
4362026-05-03St. Pauli vs Mainz (1-2)BundesligaMainz Win 2.66 38.8% won2026-04-26 00:36:08 pre-kickoff
4352026-05-03Freiburg vs Wolfsburg (1-1)BundesligaOver 2.5 goals 1.71 68.0% lost2026-04-26 00:36:08 pre-kickoff
4342026-05-03Freiburg vs Wolfsburg (1-1)BundesligaFreiburg Win 2.28 45.3% lost2026-04-26 00:36:08 pre-kickoff
5542026-05-02Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig (4-1)BundesligaRB Leipzig Win 176.42 6.4% lost2026-05-02 18:16:46 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
5532026-05-02Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig (4-1)BundesligaDraw 37.26 6.4% lost2026-05-02 18:16:46 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
5512026-05-02FC Famalicão vs Sport Lisboa e Benfica (2-2)Primeira LigaFC Famalicão Win 65.68 5.3% lost2026-05-02 18:16:46 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
5502026-05-02Deportivo Alavés vs Athletic Club (2-4)Primera DivisionDeportivo Alavés Win 46.08 5.7% lost2026-05-02 18:16:46 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
5492026-05-02Udinese Calcio vs Torino FC (2-0)Serie AOver 2.5 goals 2.30 44.3% lost2026-05-02 14:09:31 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
5482026-05-02Udinese Calcio vs Torino FC (2-0)Serie ATorino FC Win 13.47 11.6% lost2026-05-02 14:09:31 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
5472026-05-02Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV (1-2)BundesligaOver 2.5 goals 2.74 50.5% won2026-05-02 14:09:31 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
5462026-05-02SV Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg (1-3)BundesligaSV Werder Bremen Win 3.66 30.4% lost2026-05-02 14:09:31 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
5452026-05-02TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart (3-3)BundesligaVfB Stuttgart Win 6.25 18.0% lost2026-05-02 14:09:31 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
5442026-05-021. FC Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln (2-2)Bundesliga1. FC Union Berlin Win 2.82 36.5% lost2026-05-02 14:09:31 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
5342026-05-02Arsenal FC vs Fulham FC (3-0)Premier LeagueFulham FC Win 6.88 17.1% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5332026-05-02Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs Sunderland AFC (1-1)Premier LeagueOver 2.5 goals 2.07 49.2% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5322026-05-02Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs Sunderland AFC (1-1)Premier LeagueWolverhampton Wanderers FC Win 3.45 31.1% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5232026-05-02Atalanta BC vs Genoa CFC (0-0)Serie AGenoa CFC Win 6.06 18.6% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5182026-05-021. FC Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln (2-2)BundesligaOver 2.5 goals 1.99 54.3% won2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5172026-05-02FC Bayern München vs 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (3-3)Bundesliga1. FC Heidenheim 1846 Win 8.93 14.4% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5142026-05-02OGC Nice vs Racing Club de Lens (1-1)Ligue 1OGC Nice Win 4.32 27.0% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff

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