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Public pick log

Settled picks only, newest first

Only picks that have been settled appear here, so nothing on this page is a live pick. Wins, losses and voids are all listed. Picks issued after kick-off, and picks touched by a past settlement repair, are shown and flagged rather than hidden. 18+ | Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future results.

Summary

As of 2026-11-03, excluding picks issued after kick-off: 551 settled picks (286 won, 265 lost). Flat 1-unit stake ROI is +1.70% with a 95% interval of -6.9% to +10.3% (normal approximation). The interval includes zero: this is not evidence of an edge.

Closing-line value: 138 picks (25.0%) have a stored closing price; mean difference to close +9.12%. This mostly reflects taking the best price across bookmakers and comparing it with a single closing price that still includes the bookmaker's margin. It is not evidence that the model predicts better than the market.

How we measure this · Model methodology

Log

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1068 picks. Download CSV (rate-limited).

#Match dateMatchLeagueMarketOddsModel prob.OutcomeIssued (UTC)Flags
5132026-05-02FC Metz vs AS Monaco FC (1-2)Ligue 1FC Metz Win 7.30 19.7% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5122026-05-02Paris Saint-Germain FC vs FC Lorient (2-2)Ligue 1FC Lorient Win 8.12 15.3% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5112026-05-02FC Nantes vs Olympique de Marseille (3-0)Ligue 1FC Nantes Win 4.43 26.5% won2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5052026-05-02CA Osasuna vs FC Barcelona (1-2)Primera DivisionDraw 3.90 31.3% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5042026-05-02Deportivo Alavés vs Athletic Club (2-4)Primera DivisionDraw 3.38 34.4% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5032026-05-02Valencia CF vs Club Atlético de Madrid (0-2)Primera DivisionDraw 3.89 31.4% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
5022026-05-02Villarreal CF vs Levante UD (5-1)Primera DivisionDraw 4.29 30.0% lost2026-05-01 23:07:49 pre-kickoff
4902026-05-02Newcastle vs Brighton (3-1)Premier LeagueOver 2.5 goals 1.75 58.9% won2026-04-30 08:06:25 pre-kickoff
4892026-05-02Osasuna vs Barcelona (1-2)La LigaOsasuna Win 4.74 22.0% lost2026-04-29 14:05:50 pre-kickoff
4842026-05-02Osasuna vs Barcelona (1-2)La LigaOver 3.5 goals 2.38 43.1% lost2026-04-28 00:11:35 pre-kickoff
4642026-05-02Valencia vs Atl. Madrid (0-2)La LigaAtl. Madrid Win 3.73 27.7% won2026-04-27 00:10:46 pre-kickoff
4592026-05-02Nijmegen vs Telstar (1-1)Eredivisie - Regular seasonOver 2.5 goals 1.38 73.9% lost2026-04-26 18:10:36 pre-kickoff
4552026-05-02NEC vs Telstar 1963 (1-1)EredivisieDraw 5.66 24.6% won2026-04-26 00:36:08 pre-kickoff
4542026-05-02AFC Ajax vs PSV (2-2)EredivisieDraw 4.04 30.4% won2026-04-26 00:36:08 pre-kickoff
4532026-05-02FC Groningen vs SBV Excelsior (2-3)EredivisieDraw 3.79 30.8% lost2026-04-26 00:36:08 pre-kickoff
4522026-05-02FC Utrecht vs NAC Breda (2-0)EredivisieDraw 3.69 32.1% lost2026-04-26 00:36:08 pre-kickoff
4512026-05-02FC Porto vs FC Alverca (1-0)Primeira LigaFC Alverca Win 10.80 10.8% lost2026-04-26 00:36:08 pre-kickoff
4502026-05-02FC Porto vs FC Alverca (1-0)Primeira LigaDraw 5.31 25.4% lost2026-04-26 00:36:08 pre-kickoff
4492026-05-02FC Famalicão vs Sport Lisboa e Benfica (2-2)Primeira LigaDraw 3.65 31.6% won2026-04-26 00:36:08 pre-kickoff
4482026-05-02CD Nacional vs AVS (1-2)Primeira LigaDraw 3.94 30.3% lost2026-04-26 00:36:08 pre-kickoff
4472026-05-02FC Arouca vs CD Santa Clara (2-2)Primeira LigaDraw 2.91 36.8% won2026-04-26 00:36:08 pre-kickoff
4462026-05-02Moreirense FC vs CF Estrela da Amadora (3-2)Primeira LigaDraw 3.11 35.3% lost2026-04-26 00:36:08 pre-kickoff
4332026-05-02Alaves vs Ath Bilbao (2-4)La LigaAlaves Win 2.62 38.9% lost2026-04-26 00:36:08 pre-kickoff
4322026-05-02Nijmegen vs Telstar (1-1)Eredivisie - Regular seasonOver 3.5 goals 1.85 55.3% lost2026-04-26 00:36:08 pre-kickoff
4242026-05-02Villarreal vs Levante (5-1)La LigaVillarreal Win 1.72 59.5% won2026-04-25 12:35:42 pre-kickoff
4192026-05-02Nice vs Lens (1-1)Ligue 1Over 3.5 goals 2.30 48.1% lost2026-04-25 00:35:11 pre-kickoff
4182026-05-02Nice vs Lens (1-1)Ligue 1Over 2.5 goals 1.57 68.2% lost2026-04-25 00:35:11 pre-kickoff
4172026-05-02Nantes vs Marseille (3-0)Ligue 1Over 2.5 goals 1.71 59.8% won2026-04-25 00:35:11 pre-kickoff
4162026-05-02Werder Bremen vs Augsburg (1-3)BundesligaAugsburg Win 3.74 28.6% won2026-04-25 00:35:11 pre-kickoff
4152026-05-02Utrecht vs NAC Breda (2-0)EredivisieUtrecht Win 1.76 57.7% won2026-04-25 00:35:11 pre-kickoff
4142026-05-02Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart (3-3)BundesligaOver 3.5 goals 1.95 58.0% won2026-04-25 00:35:11 pre-kickoff
4132026-05-02Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart (3-3)BundesligaOver 2.5 goals 1.36 76.7% won2026-04-25 00:35:11 pre-kickoff
5002026-05-01Leeds vs Burnley (3-1)Premier LeagueBurnley Win 31.38 5.9% lost2026-05-01 20:07:28 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
4992026-05-01Girona vs Mallorca (0-1)La LigaGirona Win 4.97 24.1% lost2026-05-01 20:07:28 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
4982026-05-01Legia vs Widzew Lodz (1-0)EkstraklasaLegia Win 3.45 29.9% won2026-05-01 20:07:28 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
4112026-05-01Leeds vs Burnley (3-1)Premier LeagueOver 2.5 goals 1.70 63.0% won2026-04-24 00:34:25 pre-kickoff
4062026-04-30Nottingham vs Aston Villa (1-0)UEFA Europa League - Semi-finalsAston Villa Win 2.83 36.5% lost2026-04-23 00:33:37 pre-kickoff
4882026-04-29Atl. Madrid vs Arsenal (1-1)UEFA Champions League - Semi-finalsAtl. Madrid Win 3.25 31.3% lost2026-04-29 14:05:50 pre-kickoff
4702026-04-29Sporting Clube de Portugal vs CD Tondela (2-2)Primeira LigaCD Tondela Win 11.29 10.4% lost2026-04-27 00:10:46 pre-kickoff
4692026-04-29Sporting Clube de Portugal vs CD Tondela (2-2)Primeira LigaDraw 7.37 21.4% won2026-04-27 00:10:46 pre-kickoff
4022026-04-29Atl. Madrid vs Arsenal (1-1)UEFA Champions League - Semi-finalsOver 2.5 goals 2.20 48.5% lost2026-04-22 00:32:41 pre-kickoff
4812026-04-27Piast Gliwice vs Arka Gdynia (4-1)EkstraklasaArka Gdynia Win 40.20 4.7% lost2026-04-27 18:11:23 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
4802026-04-27Piast Gliwice vs Arka Gdynia (4-1)EkstraklasaDraw 12.76 10.1% lost2026-04-27 18:11:23 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
4792026-04-27Cagliari vs Atalanta (3-2)Serie AAtalanta Win 13.25 15.7% lost2026-04-27 18:11:23 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
3892026-04-27Espanyol vs Levante (0-0)La LigaLevante Win 3.84 26.9% lost2026-04-20 02:56:58 pre-kickoff
3882026-04-27Lazio vs Udinese (3-3)Serie AOver 2.5 goals 2.05 50.4% won2026-04-20 02:56:58 pre-kickoff
3872026-04-27Lazio vs Udinese (3-3)Serie AUdinese Win 3.94 26.8% lost2026-04-20 02:56:58 pre-kickoff
4632026-04-26Marseille vs Nice (1-1)Ligue 1Marseille Win 1.74 58.6% lost2026-04-26 18:37:23 pre-kickoff
4582026-04-26Osasuna vs Sevilla (2-1)La LigaOsasuna Win 3.45 32.3% won2026-04-26 18:10:36 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
4572026-04-26Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom (0-1)EkstraklasaWisla Plock Win 54.90 13.0% lost2026-04-26 12:10:27 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)

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