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Public pick log

Settled picks only, newest first

Only picks that have been settled appear here, so nothing on this page is a live pick. Wins, losses and voids are all listed. Picks issued after kick-off, and picks touched by a past settlement repair, are shown and flagged rather than hidden. 18+ | Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future results.

Summary

As of 2026-11-03, excluding picks issued after kick-off: 551 settled picks (286 won, 265 lost). Flat 1-unit stake ROI is +1.70% with a 95% interval of -6.9% to +10.3% (normal approximation). The interval includes zero: this is not evidence of an edge.

Closing-line value: 138 picks (25.0%) have a stored closing price; mean difference to close +9.12%. This mostly reflects taking the best price across bookmakers and comparing it with a single closing price that still includes the bookmaker's margin. It is not evidence that the model predicts better than the market.

How we measure this · Model methodology

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1068 picks. Download CSV (rate-limited).

#Match dateMatchLeagueMarketOddsModel prob.OutcomeIssued (UTC)Flags
4562026-04-26Lorient vs Strasbourg (2-3)Ligue 1Strasbourg Win 3.98 25.9% won2026-04-26 06:36:21 pre-kickoff
4102026-04-26Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad (3-3)La LigaRayo Vallecano Win 2.73 38.1% lost2026-04-24 00:34:25 pre-kickoff
3952026-04-26CD Santa Clara vs Sporting Clube de Braga (2-1)Primeira LigaOver 2.5 goals 2.26 45.1% won2026-04-20 14:57:38 pre-kickoff
3912026-04-26Heracles Almelo vs FC Volendam (0-2)EredivisieDraw 3.55 32.2% lost2026-04-20 02:56:58 pre-kickoff
3902026-04-26SBV Excelsior vs FC Utrecht (5-0)EredivisieDraw 3.30 32.6% lost2026-04-20 02:56:58 pre-kickoff
3862026-04-26Paris FC vs Lille (0-1)Ligue 1Lille Win 2.01 50.6% won2026-04-19 23:56:49 pre-kickoff
3832026-04-26GD Estoril Praia vs FC Famalicão (0-1)Primeira LigaDraw 3.21 32.6% lost2026-04-19 17:56:27 pre-kickoff
3822026-04-26Lech Poznan vs Legia (4-0)EkstraklasaOver 2.5 goals 1.75 68.5% won2026-04-19 17:56:27 pre-kickoff
3772026-04-26CD Santa Clara vs Sporting Clube de Braga (2-1)Primeira LigaCD Santa Clara Win 3.60 29.6% won2026-04-19 02:35:53 pre-kickoff
3762026-04-26AVS vs Sporting Clube de Portugal (1-1)Primeira LigaDraw 8.84 20.1% won2026-04-19 02:35:50 pre-kickoff
3752026-04-26AVS vs Sporting Clube de Portugal (1-1)Primeira LigaAVS Win 18.64 8.1% lost2026-04-19 02:35:50 pre-kickoff
3742026-04-26Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs Moreirense FC (4-1)Primeira LigaMoreirense FC Win 16.68 8.5% lost2026-04-19 02:35:50 pre-kickoff
3732026-04-26Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs Moreirense FC (4-1)Primeira LigaDraw 7.37 21.8% lost2026-04-19 02:35:50 pre-kickoff
3722026-04-26CD Tondela vs CD Nacional (0-2)Primeira LigaDraw 3.16 35.0% lost2026-04-19 02:35:50 pre-kickoff
3712026-04-26CF Estrela da Amadora vs FC Porto (1-2)Primeira LigaDraw 4.82 27.0% lost2026-04-19 02:35:50 pre-kickoff
3702026-04-26CF Estrela da Amadora vs FC Porto (1-2)Primeira LigaCF Estrela da Amadora Win 10.31 11.2% lost2026-04-19 02:35:50 pre-kickoff
3692026-04-26Vitória SC vs Rio Ave FC (2-0)Primeira LigaDraw 3.60 32.2% lost2026-04-19 02:35:50 pre-kickoff
3682026-04-26CD Santa Clara vs Sporting Clube de Braga (2-1)Primeira LigaDraw 2.96 36.5% lost2026-04-19 02:35:50 pre-kickoff
3672026-04-26FC Alverca vs FC Arouca (0-1)Primeira LigaDraw 3.21 34.6% lost2026-04-19 02:35:50 pre-kickoff
3662026-04-26Gil Vicente FC vs Casa Pia AC (2-1)Primeira LigaDraw 3.65 31.8% lost2026-04-19 02:35:50 pre-kickoff
3612026-04-26Osasuna vs Sevilla (2-1)La LigaOver 2.5 goals 2.08 56.8% won2026-04-19 02:35:50 pre-kickoff
3602026-04-26Marseille vs Nice (1-1)Ligue 1Over 3.5 goals 2.17 51.8% lost2026-04-19 02:35:50 pre-kickoff
3592026-04-26Marseille vs Nice (1-1)Ligue 1Over 2.5 goals 1.44 72.1% lost2026-04-19 02:35:50 pre-kickoff
3582026-04-26Fiorentina vs Sassuolo (0-0)Serie ASassuolo Win 3.65 28.8% lost2026-04-19 02:35:50 pre-kickoff
3572026-04-26Torino vs Inter (2-2)Serie AOver 2.5 goals 1.64 62.9% won2026-04-19 02:35:50 pre-kickoff
3562026-04-26Paris FC vs Lille (0-1)Ligue 1Over 2.5 goals 1.91 68.7% lost2026-04-19 02:35:50 pre-kickoff
3552026-04-26Lorient vs Strasbourg (2-3)Ligue 1Over 2.5 goals 1.83 68.8% won2026-04-19 02:35:50 pre-kickoff
3542026-04-26Lorient vs Strasbourg (2-3)Ligue 1Lorient Win 2.81 36.3% lost2026-04-19 02:35:50 pre-kickoff
4312026-04-25SC Heerenveen vs Fortuna Sittard (2-1)EredivisieFortuna Sittard Win 392.02 4.3% lost2026-04-25 18:35:56 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
4302026-04-25NAC Breda vs Ajax (0-2)Eredivisie - Regular seasonOver 3.5 goals 2.50 43.3% lost2026-04-25 18:35:56 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
4292026-04-25Heerenveen vs Sittard (2-1)Eredivisie - Regular seasonSittard Win 392.02 5.2% lost2026-04-25 18:35:56 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
4282026-04-25Heerenveen vs Sittard (2-1)Eredivisie - Regular seasonDraw 15.70 8.3% lost2026-04-25 18:35:56 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
4272026-04-25Twente vs Nijmegen (1-1)Eredivisie - Regular seasonOver 3.5 goals 2.30 44.9% lost2026-04-25 18:35:56 pre-kickoff
4262026-04-25Cracovia vs Pogon Szczecin (1-1)EkstraklasaCracovia Win 3.94 28.5% lost2026-04-25 18:35:56 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
4252026-04-25Angers vs PSG (0-3)Ligue 1Draw 22.56 7.4% lost2026-04-25 18:35:56 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
4232026-04-25Alaves vs Mallorca (2-1)La LigaAlaves Win 3.89 28.5% won2026-04-25 12:35:42 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
4222026-04-25Fulham vs Aston Villa (1-0)Premier LeagueOver 2.5 goals 2.00 51.5% lost2026-04-25 12:35:42 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
4212026-04-25Fulham vs Aston Villa (1-0)Premier LeagueAston Villa Win 5.41 19.4% lost2026-04-25 12:35:42 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
4202026-04-25Twente vs Nijmegen (1-1)Eredivisie - Regular seasonNijmegen Win 4.04 25.8% lost2026-04-25 06:35:24 pre-kickoff
4032026-04-25Alaves vs Mallorca (2-1)La LigaOver 2.5 goals 2.34 43.6% won2026-04-22 12:33:07 pre-kickoff
3972026-04-25Toulouse vs Monaco (2-2)Ligue 1Toulouse Win 3.35 30.4% lost2026-04-21 12:32:13 pre-kickoff
3932026-04-25Wolfsburg vs B. Monchengladbach (0-0)BundesligaB. Monchengladbach Win 2.86 35.5% lost2026-04-20 08:57:17 pre-kickoff
3802026-04-25West Ham vs Everton (2-1)Premier LeagueEverton Win 2.67 38.7% lost2026-04-19 10:56:04 pre-kickoff
3782026-04-25NAC Breda vs AFC Ajax (0-2)EredivisieNAC Breda Win 3.50 31.4% lost2026-04-19 08:56:21 pre-kickoff
3652026-04-25FC Twente '65 vs NEC (1-1)EredivisieDraw 3.65 30.9% won2026-04-19 02:35:50 pre-kickoff
3642026-04-25NAC Breda vs AFC Ajax (0-2)EredivisieDraw 3.79 31.8% lost2026-04-19 02:35:50 pre-kickoff
3632026-04-25SC Heerenveen vs Fortuna Sittard (2-1)EredivisieDraw 4.14 28.7% lost2026-04-19 02:35:50 pre-kickoff
3622026-04-25Feyenoord Rotterdam vs FC Groningen (3-1)EredivisieDraw 3.94 29.5% lost2026-04-19 02:35:50 pre-kickoff
3532026-04-25Lechia Gdansk vs Rakow (1-2)EkstraklasaOver 2.5 goals 1.80 70.7% won2026-04-18 20:35:32 pre-kickoff
3482026-04-25Liverpool vs Crystal Palace (3-1)Premier LeagueCrystal Palace Win 5.31 20.0% lost2026-04-18 14:35:03 pre-kickoff

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