Public pick log
Settled picks only, newest first
Only picks that have been settled appear here, so nothing on this page is a live pick. Wins, losses and voids are all listed. Picks issued after kick-off, and picks touched by a past settlement repair, are shown and flagged rather than hidden. 18+ | Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future results.
Summary
As of 2026-11-03, excluding picks issued after kick-off: 551 settled picks (286 won, 265 lost). Flat 1-unit stake ROI is +1.70% with a 95% interval of -6.9% to +10.3% (normal approximation). The interval includes zero: this is not evidence of an edge.
Closing-line value: 138 picks (25.0%) have a stored closing price; mean difference to close +9.12%. This mostly reflects taking the best price across bookmakers and comparing it with a single closing price that still includes the bookmaker's margin. It is not evidence that the model predicts better than the market.
How we measure this · Model methodology
Log
1068 picks. Download CSV (rate-limited).
| # | Match date | Match | League | Market | Odds | Model prob. | Outcome | Issued (UTC) | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 340 | 2026-04-25 | Toulouse vs Monaco (2-2) | Ligue 1 | Over 2.5 goals | 1.74 | 59.8% | won | 2026-04-18 02:34:28 | pre-kickoff |
| 339 | 2026-04-25 | Angers vs PSG (0-3) | Ligue 1 | Angers Win | 10.41 | 11.0% | lost | 2026-04-18 02:34:28 | pre-kickoff |
| 338 | 2026-04-25 | Atl. Madrid vs Ath Bilbao (3-2) | La Liga | Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 55.9% | won | 2026-04-18 02:34:28 | pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix |
| 337 | 2026-04-25 | Atl. Madrid vs Ath Bilbao (3-2) | La Liga | Atl. Madrid Win | 2.32 | 46.3% | won | 2026-04-18 02:34:28 | pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix |
| 336 | 2026-04-25 | Parma vs Pisa (1-0) | Serie A | Over 2.5 goals | 2.28 | 45.4% | lost | 2026-04-18 02:34:28 | pre-kickoff |
| 335 | 2026-04-25 | Verona vs Lecce (0-0) | Serie A | Lecce Win | 3.55 | 29.4% | lost | 2026-04-18 02:34:28 | pre-kickoff |
| 334 | 2026-04-25 | Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt (1-1) | Bundesliga | Over 3.5 goals | 2.35 | 56.1% | lost | 2026-04-18 02:34:28 | pre-kickoff |
| 333 | 2026-04-25 | Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt (1-1) | Bundesliga | Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 74.4% | lost | 2026-04-18 02:34:28 | pre-kickoff |
| 332 | 2026-04-25 | Hamburger SV vs Hoffenheim (1-2) | Bundesliga | Hamburger SV Win | 3.78 | 27.2% | lost | 2026-04-18 02:34:28 | pre-kickoff |
| 331 | 2026-04-25 | Feyenoord vs Groningen (3-1) | Eredivisie | Over 3.5 goals | 2.14 | 50.4% | won | 2026-04-18 02:34:28 | pre-kickoff |
| 330 | 2026-04-25 | Feyenoord vs Groningen (3-1) | Eredivisie | Over 2.5 goals | 1.52 | 69.9% | won | 2026-04-18 02:34:28 | pre-kickoff |
| 329 | 2026-04-25 | Heerenveen vs Sittard (2-1) | Eredivisie | Over 3.5 goals | 2.12 | 57.8% | lost | 2026-04-18 02:34:28 | pre-kickoff |
| 328 | 2026-04-25 | Heerenveen vs Sittard (2-1) | Eredivisie | Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 76.3% | won | 2026-04-18 02:34:28 | pre-kickoff |
| 327 | 2026-04-25 | NAC Breda vs Ajax (0-2) | Eredivisie | Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 64.7% | lost | 2026-04-18 02:34:28 | pre-kickoff |
| 326 | 2026-04-25 | Wolves vs Tottenham (0-1) | Premier League | Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 58.3% | lost | 2026-04-18 02:34:28 | pre-kickoff |
| 325 | 2026-04-25 | FC Koln vs Bayer Leverkusen (1-2) | Bundesliga | Over 3.5 goals | 2.14 | 52.6% | lost | 2026-04-18 02:34:28 | pre-kickoff |
| 324 | 2026-04-25 | FC Koln vs Bayer Leverkusen (1-2) | Bundesliga | Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 71.9% | won | 2026-04-18 02:34:28 | pre-kickoff |
| 323 | 2026-04-25 | FC Koln vs Bayer Leverkusen (1-2) | Bundesliga | FC Koln Win | 4.15 | 24.9% | lost | 2026-04-18 02:34:28 | pre-kickoff |
| 412 | 2026-04-24 | RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin (3-1) | Bundesliga | Over 2.5 goals | 1.71 | 62.2% | won | 2026-04-24 18:34:55 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 409 | 2026-04-24 | RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin (3-1) | Bundesliga | Over 3.5 goals | 2.44 | 41.9% | won | 2026-04-24 00:34:25 | pre-kickoff |
| 392 | 2026-04-24 | Brest vs Lens (3-3) | Ligue 1 | Over 2.5 goals | 1.72 | 59.4% | won | 2026-04-20 08:57:17 | pre-kickoff |
| 385 | 2026-04-24 | Brest vs Lens (3-3) | Ligue 1 | Brest Win | 4.43 | 23.9% | lost | 2026-04-19 23:56:49 | pre-kickoff |
| 379 | 2026-04-24 | Sunderland vs Nottingham (0-5) | Premier League | Sunderland Win | 2.86 | 36.6% | lost | 2026-04-19 10:56:04 | pre-kickoff |
| 322 | 2026-04-24 | Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze (1-2) | Ekstraklasa | Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 57.3% | won | 2026-04-18 02:34:28 | pre-kickoff |
| 408 | 2026-04-23 | G.A. Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar (0-0) | Eredivisie | AZ Alkmaar Win | 8.35 | 13.3% | lost | 2026-04-23 18:34:48 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 407 | 2026-04-23 | Levante vs Sevilla (2-0) | La Liga | Sevilla Win | 2.96 | 34.5% | lost | 2026-04-23 12:34:03 | pre-kickoff |
| 317 | 2026-04-23 | Casa Pia AC vs Sporting Clube de Braga (0-1) | Primeira Liga | Casa Pia AC Win | 5.90 | 21.6% | lost | 2026-04-17 02:33:03 | pre-kickoff |
| 313 | 2026-04-23 | Casa Pia AC vs Sporting Clube de Braga (0-1) | Primeira Liga | Draw | 3.84 | 30.8% | lost | 2026-04-17 02:33:02 | pre-kickoff |
| 312 | 2026-04-23 | PSV vs PEC Zwolle (6-1) | Eredivisie | PEC Zwolle Win | 10.80 | 11.0% | lost | 2026-04-17 02:33:02 | pre-kickoff |
| 311 | 2026-04-23 | PSV vs PEC Zwolle (6-1) | Eredivisie | Draw | 7.37 | 21.9% | lost | 2026-04-17 02:33:02 | pre-kickoff |
| 310 | 2026-04-23 | PSV vs Zwolle (6-1) | Eredivisie | Over 3.5 goals | 1.58 | 64.8% | won | 2026-04-16 20:32:48 | pre-kickoff |
| 304 | 2026-04-23 | Levante vs Sevilla (2-0) | La Liga | Over 2.5 goals | 2.18 | 54.5% | lost | 2026-04-16 02:32:03 | pre-kickoff |
| 303 | 2026-04-23 | G.A. Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar (0-0) | Eredivisie | Over 3.5 goals | 2.14 | 47.8% | lost | 2026-04-16 02:32:03 | pre-kickoff |
| 302 | 2026-04-23 | G.A. Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar (0-0) | Eredivisie | Over 2.5 goals | 1.52 | 67.8% | lost | 2026-04-16 02:32:03 | pre-kickoff |
| 251 | 2026-04-23 | G.A. Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar (0-0) | Eredivisie | G.A. Eagles Win | 2.71 | 37.5% | lost | 2026-04-12 09:35:24 | pre-kickoff |
| 250 | 2026-04-23 | PSV vs Zwolle (6-1) | Eredivisie | Zwolle Win | 9.82 | 12.3% | lost | 2026-04-12 09:35:24 | pre-kickoff |
| 405 | 2026-04-22 | Elche vs Atl. Madrid (3-2) | La Liga | Atl. Madrid Win | 6.41 | 17.6% | lost | 2026-04-22 18:33:22 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 404 | 2026-04-22 | Telstar vs Sparta Rotterdam (4-1) | Eredivisie | Telstar Win | 4.04 | 26.1% | won | 2026-04-22 18:33:22 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 401 | 2026-04-22 | Burnley vs Manchester City (0-1) | Premier League | Burnley Win | 17.66 | 6.6% | lost | 2026-04-22 00:32:41 | pre-kickoff |
| 394 | 2026-04-22 | Telstar vs Sparta Rotterdam (4-1) | Eredivisie | Over 3.5 goals | 2.08 | 49.1% | won | 2026-04-20 14:57:36 | pre-kickoff |
| 305 | 2026-04-22 | Telstar 1963 vs Sparta Rotterdam (4-1) | Eredivisie | Draw | 3.35 | 32.6% | lost | 2026-04-16 02:32:03 | pre-kickoff |
| 301 | 2026-04-22 | Telstar vs Sparta Rotterdam (4-1) | Eredivisie | Over 2.5 goals | 1.56 | 68.1% | won | 2026-04-16 02:32:03 | pre-kickoff |
| 297 | 2026-04-22 | Real Sociedad vs Getafe (0-1) | La Liga | Over 2.5 goals | 2.48 | 47.4% | lost | 2026-04-15 02:31:09 | pre-kickoff |
| 249 | 2026-04-22 | Elche vs Atl. Madrid (3-2) | La Liga | Elche Win | 3.27 | 31.7% | won | 2026-04-12 09:35:24 | pre-kickoff |
| 400 | 2026-04-21 | Brighton vs Chelsea (3-0) | Premier League | Chelsea Win | 2.91 | 35.2% | lost | 2026-04-21 18:32:28 | pre-kickoff |
| 399 | 2026-04-21 | Ath Bilbao vs Osasuna (1-0) | La Liga | Osasuna Win | 26.83 | 8.1% | lost | 2026-04-21 18:32:28 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 398 | 2026-04-21 | Ath Bilbao vs Osasuna (1-0) | La Liga | Draw | 4.90 | 21.3% | lost | 2026-04-21 18:32:28 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 294 | 2026-04-21 | Mallorca vs Valencia (1-1) | La Liga | Over 2.5 goals | 2.22 | 47.2% | lost | 2026-04-14 02:29:50 | pre-kickoff |
| 248 | 2026-04-21 | Girona vs Betis (2-3) | La Liga | Betis Win | 2.81 | 36.3% | won | 2026-04-12 09:35:24 | pre-kickoff |
| 247 | 2026-04-21 | Mallorca vs Valencia (1-1) | La Liga | Mallorca Win | 2.43 | 42.3% | lost | 2026-04-12 09:35:24 | pre-kickoff |