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Public pick log

Settled picks only, newest first

Only picks that have been settled appear here, so nothing on this page is a live pick. Wins, losses and voids are all listed. Picks issued after kick-off, and picks touched by a past settlement repair, are shown and flagged rather than hidden. 18+ | Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future results.

Summary

As of 2026-11-03, excluding picks issued after kick-off: 551 settled picks (286 won, 265 lost). Flat 1-unit stake ROI is +1.70% with a 95% interval of -6.9% to +10.3% (normal approximation). The interval includes zero: this is not evidence of an edge.

Closing-line value: 138 picks (25.0%) have a stored closing price; mean difference to close +9.12%. This mostly reflects taking the best price across bookmakers and comparing it with a single closing price that still includes the bookmaker's margin. It is not evidence that the model predicts better than the market.

How we measure this · Model methodology

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1068 picks. Download CSV (rate-limited).

#Match dateMatchLeagueMarketOddsModel prob.OutcomeIssued (UTC)Flags
3962026-04-20Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice (1-1)EkstraklasaPiast Gliwice Win 7.57 14.7% lost2026-04-20 18:31:17 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
3162026-04-20Moreirense FC vs GD Estoril Praia (1-0)Primeira LigaMoreirense FC Win 3.07 33.8% won2026-04-17 02:33:03 pre-kickoff
2952026-04-20Moreirense FC vs GD Estoril Praia (1-0)Primeira LigaDraw 3.24 35.0% lost2026-04-14 02:29:50 pre-kickoff
2932026-04-20Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice (1-1)EkstraklasaOver 2.5 goals 1.78 69.4% lost2026-04-13 17:23:50 pre-kickoff
3842026-04-19Sporting Clube de Portugal vs Sport Lisboa e Benfica (1-2)Primeira LigaSporting Clube de Portugal Win 4.33 26.2% lost2026-04-19 17:56:27 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
3812026-04-19Cremonese vs Torino (0-0)Serie ATorino Win 3.18 32.2% lost2026-04-19 11:11:14 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
3002026-04-19B. Monchengladbach vs Mainz (1-1)BundesligaMainz Win 2.90 35.1% lost2026-04-16 02:32:03 pre-kickoff
2962026-04-19Pisa vs Genoa (1-2)Serie AGenoa Win 2.35 43.4% won2026-04-14 14:30:41 pre-kickoff
2922026-04-19Cremonese vs Torino (0-0)Serie AOver 2.5 goals 2.28 45.1% lost2026-04-13 17:23:50 pre-kickoff
2902026-04-19Sporting Clube de Braga vs FC Famalicão (2-2)Primeira LigaDraw 3.40 33.3% won2026-04-13 16:27:31 pre-kickoff
2892026-04-19FC Porto vs CD Tondela (2-0)Primeira LigaCD Tondela Win 13.74 9.4% lost2026-04-13 16:27:31 pre-kickoff
2882026-04-19FC Porto vs CD Tondela (2-0)Primeira LigaDraw 5.90 24.2% lost2026-04-13 16:27:31 pre-kickoff
2872026-04-19Sporting Clube de Portugal vs Sport Lisboa e Benfica (1-2)Primeira LigaDraw 3.45 32.9% lost2026-04-13 16:27:31 pre-kickoff
2862026-04-19FC Arouca vs CF Estrela da Amadora (1-0)Primeira LigaDraw 3.16 34.9% lost2026-04-13 16:27:31 pre-kickoff
2852026-04-19Nottingham vs Burnley (4-1)Premier LeagueBurnley Win 6.34 18.6% lost2026-04-13 16:27:31 pre-kickoff
2842026-04-19Verona vs AC Milan (0-1)Serie AOver 2.5 goals 2.17 47.1% lost2026-04-13 16:27:31 pre-kickoff
2762026-04-19Nantes vs Brest (1-1)Ligue 1Over 2.5 goals 2.00 53.1% lost2026-04-12 09:42:46 pre-kickoff
2752026-04-19Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart (4-2)BundesligaOver 3.5 goals 1.62 62.7% won2026-04-12 09:42:46 pre-kickoff
2742026-04-19Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart (4-2)BundesligaOver 2.5 goals 1.29 79.1% won2026-04-12 09:42:46 pre-kickoff
2732026-04-19B. Monchengladbach vs Mainz (1-1)BundesligaOver 2.5 goals 1.82 56.2% lost2026-04-12 09:42:46 pre-kickoff
2332026-04-19Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart (4-2)BundesligaStuttgart Win 8.57 13.1% lost2026-04-12 09:17:00 pre-kickoff
2322026-04-19Juventus vs Bologna (2-0)Serie ABologna Win 6.29 19.2% lost2026-04-12 09:17:00 pre-kickoff
2312026-04-19Verona vs AC Milan (0-1)Serie AAC Milan Win 1.59 65.0% won2026-04-12 09:17:00 pre-kickoff
2302026-04-19Nantes vs Brest (1-1)Ligue 1Brest Win 3.01 36.0% lost2026-04-12 09:17:00 pre-kickoff
2292026-04-19Strasbourg vs Rennes (0-3)Ligue 1Strasbourg Win 2.44 45.6% lost2026-04-12 09:17:00 pre-kickoff
3522026-04-18Chelsea vs Manchester Utd (0-1)Premier LeagueChelsea Win 10.31 14.2% lost2026-04-18 20:35:32 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
3512026-04-18Lille vs Nice (0-0)Ligue 1Lille Win 2.52 43.1% lost2026-04-18 20:35:32 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
3502026-04-18AS Roma vs Atalanta (1-1)Serie AOver 2.5 goals 6.40 22.8% lost2026-04-18 20:35:32 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
3492026-04-18AS Roma vs Atalanta (1-1)Serie AAS Roma Win 3.55 30.3% lost2026-04-18 20:35:32 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
3472026-04-18Leeds vs Wolves (3-0)Premier LeagueWolves Win 49.02 4.2% lost2026-04-18 14:35:03 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
3462026-04-18Leeds vs Wolves (3-0)Premier LeagueDraw 14.72 9.9% lost2026-04-18 14:35:03 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
3452026-04-18Newcastle vs Bournemouth (1-2)Premier LeagueNewcastle Win 5.12 23.0% lost2026-04-18 14:35:03 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
3442026-04-18Udinese vs Parma (0-1)Serie AUdinese Win 14.87 12.1% lost2026-04-18 14:35:03 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
3432026-04-18Union Berlin vs Wolfsburg (1-2)BundesligaUnion Berlin Win 6.00 21.9% lost2026-04-18 14:35:03 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
3422026-04-18Hoffenheim vs Dortmund (2-1)BundesligaOver 2.5 goals 1.76 58.1% won2026-04-18 14:35:03 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
3412026-04-18Lorient vs Marseille (2-0)Ligue 1Over 3.5 goals 2.48 46.8% lost2026-04-18 08:34:45 pre-kickoff
3212026-04-18Hoffenheim vs Dortmund (2-1)BundesligaDortmund Win 2.57 39.7% lost2026-04-17 20:33:59 pre-kickoff
3152026-04-18Casa Pia AC vs CD Santa Clara (0-0)Primeira LigaOver 2.5 goals 2.48 44.0% lost2026-04-17 02:33:03 pre-kickoff
3142026-04-18Casa Pia AC vs CD Santa Clara (0-0)Primeira LigaCasa Pia AC Win 3.35 30.7% lost2026-04-17 02:33:03 pre-kickoff
3092026-04-18Napoli vs Lazio (0-2)Serie ADraw 4.09 25.3% lost2026-04-16 20:32:48 pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix
2832026-04-18Brentford vs Fulham (0-0)Premier LeagueBrentford Win 2.16 48.0% lost2026-04-13 16:27:31 pre-kickoff
2822026-04-18Tottenham vs Brighton (2-2)Premier LeagueBrighton Win 2.51 42.2% lost2026-04-13 16:27:31 pre-kickoff
2812026-04-18Newcastle vs Bournemouth (1-2)Premier LeagueOver 3.5 goals 2.12 57.6% lost2026-04-13 16:27:31 pre-kickoff
2802026-04-18Newcastle vs Bournemouth (1-2)Premier LeagueOver 2.5 goals 1.47 75.7% won2026-04-13 16:27:31 pre-kickoff
2792026-04-18Newcastle vs Bournemouth (1-2)Premier LeagueBournemouth Win 3.78 27.8% won2026-04-13 16:27:31 pre-kickoff
2782026-04-18Chelsea vs Manchester Utd (0-1)Premier LeagueManchester Utd Win 3.09 33.7% won2026-04-13 16:27:31 pre-kickoff
2722026-04-18Lorient vs Marseille (2-0)Ligue 1Over 2.5 goals 1.72 66.3% lost2026-04-12 09:42:46 pre-kickoff
2712026-04-18Lille vs Nice (0-0)Ligue 1Over 2.5 goals 1.86 60.6% lost2026-04-12 09:42:46 pre-kickoff
2702026-04-18Union Berlin vs Wolfsburg (1-2)BundesligaOver 2.5 goals 1.81 62.5% won2026-04-12 09:42:46 pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix
2692026-04-18Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Lodz (2-1)EkstraklasaOver 2.5 goals 1.98 51.8% won2026-04-12 09:42:46 pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix

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