Public pick log
Settled picks only, newest first
Only picks that have been settled appear here, so nothing on this page is a live pick. Wins, losses and voids are all listed. Picks issued after kick-off, and picks touched by a past settlement repair, are shown and flagged rather than hidden. 18+ | Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future results.
Summary
As of 2026-11-03, excluding picks issued after kick-off: 551 settled picks (286 won, 265 lost). Flat 1-unit stake ROI is +1.70% with a 95% interval of -6.9% to +10.3% (normal approximation). The interval includes zero: this is not evidence of an edge.
Closing-line value: 138 picks (25.0%) have a stored closing price; mean difference to close +9.12%. This mostly reflects taking the best price across bookmakers and comparing it with a single closing price that still includes the bookmaker's margin. It is not evidence that the model predicts better than the market.
How we measure this · Model methodology
Log
1068 picks. Download CSV (rate-limited).
| # | Match date | Match | League | Market | Odds | Model prob. | Outcome | Issued (UTC) | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 246 | 2026-04-18 | Gil Vicente FC vs Vitória SC (0-1) | Primeira Liga | Draw | 3.16 | 37.9% | lost | 2026-04-12 09:17:00 | pre-kickoff |
| 245 | 2026-04-18 | Casa Pia AC vs CD Santa Clara (0-0) | Primeira Liga | Draw | 2.86 | 39.6% | won | 2026-04-12 09:17:00 | pre-kickoff |
| 244 | 2026-04-18 | CD Nacional vs FC Alverca (1-0) | Primeira Liga | Draw | 3.25 | 37.3% | lost | 2026-04-12 09:17:00 | pre-kickoff |
| 228 | 2026-04-18 | Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Lodz (2-1) | Ekstraklasa | Radomiak Radom Win | 2.40 | 43.6% | won | 2026-04-12 09:17:00 | pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix |
| 227 | 2026-04-18 | Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV (3-1) | Bundesliga | Hamburger SV Win | 3.47 | 29.4% | lost | 2026-04-12 09:17:00 | pre-kickoff |
| 226 | 2026-04-18 | Angers vs Le Havre (1-1) | Ligue 1 | Angers Win | 2.87 | 40.5% | lost | 2026-04-12 09:17:00 | pre-kickoff |
| 225 | 2026-04-18 | Lorient vs Marseille (2-0) | Ligue 1 | Lorient Win | 3.84 | 29.0% | won | 2026-04-12 09:17:00 | pre-kickoff |
| 320 | 2026-04-17 | Inter vs Cagliari (3-0) | Serie A | Cagliari Win | 980.02 | 2.0% | lost | 2026-04-17 20:33:59 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 319 | 2026-04-17 | Inter vs Cagliari (3-0) | Serie A | Draw | 98.02 | 3.3% | lost | 2026-04-17 20:33:59 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 318 | 2026-04-17 | Lens vs Toulouse (3-2) | Ligue 1 | Toulouse Win | 23.09 | 6.3% | lost | 2026-04-17 20:33:59 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 268 | 2026-04-17 | Inter vs Cagliari (3-0) | Serie A | Over 3.5 goals | 2.30 | 47.1% | lost | 2026-04-12 09:42:46 | pre-kickoff |
| 267 | 2026-04-17 | Inter vs Cagliari (3-0) | Serie A | Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 67.4% | won | 2026-04-12 09:42:46 | pre-kickoff |
| 266 | 2026-04-17 | St. Pauli vs FC Koln (1-1) | Bundesliga | FC Koln Win | 3.05 | 34.2% | lost | 2026-04-12 09:42:46 | pre-kickoff |
| 243 | 2026-04-17 | Rio Ave FC vs AVS (2-2) | Primeira Liga | Draw | 3.50 | 36.0% | won | 2026-04-12 09:17:00 | pre-kickoff |
| 308 | 2026-04-16 | Betis vs Braga (2-4) | UEFA Europa League - Quarter-finals | Betis Win | 11.54 | 11.1% | lost | 2026-04-16 20:32:48 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 307 | 2026-04-16 | Nottingham vs FC Porto (1-0) | UEFA Europa League - Quarter-finals | Over 3.5 goals | 21.00 | 16.4% | lost | 2026-04-16 20:32:48 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 306 | 2026-04-16 | Nottingham vs FC Porto (1-0) | UEFA Europa League - Quarter-finals | FC Porto Win | 32.36 | 4.7% | lost | 2026-04-16 20:32:48 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 265 | 2026-04-16 | Celta Vigo vs Freiburg (1-3) | UEFA Europa League - Quarter-finals | Over 3.5 goals | 3.25 | 33.8% | won | 2026-04-12 09:42:46 | pre-kickoff |
| 264 | 2026-04-16 | Celta Vigo vs Freiburg (1-3) | UEFA Europa League - Quarter-finals | Over 2.5 goals | 1.99 | 54.9% | won | 2026-04-12 09:42:46 | pre-kickoff |
| 224 | 2026-04-16 | Nottingham vs FC Porto (1-0) | UEFA Europa League - Quarter-finals | Nottingham Win | 2.27 | 49.5% | won | 2026-04-12 09:17:00 | pre-kickoff |
| 223 | 2026-04-16 | Betis vs Braga (2-4) | UEFA Europa League - Quarter-finals | Braga Win | 3.94 | 29.0% | won | 2026-04-12 09:17:00 | pre-kickoff |
| 222 | 2026-04-16 | Aston Villa vs Bologna (4-0) | UEFA Europa League - Quarter-finals | Bologna Win | 4.98 | 25.9% | lost | 2026-04-12 09:17:00 | pre-kickoff |
| 299 | 2026-04-15 | Arsenal vs Sporting CP (0-0) | UEFA Champions League - Quarter-finals | Arsenal Win | 2.76 | 42.2% | lost | 2026-04-15 20:31:51 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 298 | 2026-04-15 | Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid (4-3) | UEFA Champions League - Quarter-finals | Bayern Munich Win | 5.90 | 22.2% | won | 2026-04-15 20:31:51 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 263 | 2026-04-15 | Arsenal vs Sporting CP (0-0) | UEFA Champions League - Quarter-finals | Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 67.4% | lost | 2026-04-12 09:42:46 | pre-kickoff |
| 221 | 2026-04-15 | Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid (4-3) | UEFA Champions League - Quarter-finals | Real Madrid Win | 4.61 | 22.6% | lost | 2026-04-12 09:17:00 | pre-kickoff |
| 291 | 2026-04-14 | Liverpool vs PSG (0-2) | UEFA Champions League - Quarter-finals | PSG Win | 2.55 | 40.1% | won | 2026-04-13 16:39:49 | pre-kickoff |
| 220 | 2026-04-14 | Atl. Madrid vs Barcelona (1-2) | UEFA Champions League - Quarter-finals | Atl. Madrid Win | 3.55 | 31.5% | lost | 2026-04-12 09:17:00 | pre-kickoff |
| 277 | 2026-04-13 | Manchester Utd vs Leeds (1-2) | Premier League | Over 2.5 goals | 1.72 | 61.5% | won | 2026-04-13 16:27:31 | pre-kickoff |
| 262 | 2026-04-13 | Levante vs Getafe (1-0) | La Liga | Over 2.5 goals | 2.70 | 39.7% | lost | 2026-04-12 09:42:46 | pre-kickoff |
| 242 | 2026-04-13 | CD Tondela vs Gil Vicente FC (2-2) | Primeira Liga | Draw | 3.16 | 37.3% | won | 2026-04-12 09:17:00 | pre-kickoff |
| 219 | 2026-04-13 | Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin (0-2) | Ekstraklasa | Piast Gliwice Win | 2.52 | 41.6% | lost | 2026-04-12 09:17:00 | pre-kickoff |
| 218 | 2026-04-13 | Fiorentina vs Lazio (1-0) | Serie A | Lazio Win | 3.50 | 29.3% | lost | 2026-04-12 09:17:00 | pre-kickoff |
| 261 | 2026-04-12 | FC Koln vs Werder Bremen (3-1) | Bundesliga | Over 2.5 goals | 1.72 | 60.9% | won | 2026-04-12 09:42:46 | pre-kickoff |
| 260 | 2026-04-12 | Celta Vigo vs Oviedo (0-3) | La Liga | Over 2.5 goals | 2.04 | 58.6% | won | 2026-04-12 09:42:46 | pre-kickoff |
| 259 | 2026-04-12 | Toulouse vs Lille (0-4) | Ligue 1 | Over 2.5 goals | 2.30 | 54.5% | won | 2026-04-12 09:42:46 | pre-kickoff |
| 258 | 2026-04-12 | AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen (3-0) | Eredivisie | Over 3.5 goals | 2.16 | 58.2% | lost | 2026-04-12 09:42:46 | pre-kickoff |
| 257 | 2026-04-12 | AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen (3-0) | Eredivisie | Over 2.5 goals | 1.42 | 76.9% | won | 2026-04-12 09:42:46 | pre-kickoff |
| 256 | 2026-04-12 | Sittard vs NAC Breda (1-1) | Eredivisie | Over 2.5 goals | 1.87 | 61.0% | lost | 2026-04-12 09:42:46 | pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix |
| 255 | 2026-04-12 | Lech Poznan vs GKS Katowice (3-3) | Ekstraklasa | Over 3.5 goals | 2.12 | 52.2% | won | 2026-04-12 09:42:46 | pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix |
| 254 | 2026-04-12 | Lech Poznan vs GKS Katowice (3-3) | Ekstraklasa | Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 72.8% | won | 2026-04-12 09:42:46 | pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix |
| 253 | 2026-04-12 | Nijmegen vs Feyenoord (1-1) | Eredivisie | Over 3.5 goals | 2.28 | 61.3% | lost | 2026-04-12 09:42:46 | pre-kickoff |
| 252 | 2026-04-12 | Nijmegen vs Feyenoord (1-1) | Eredivisie | Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 79.1% | lost | 2026-04-12 09:42:46 | pre-kickoff |
| 241 | 2026-04-12 | GD Estoril Praia vs FC Porto (1-3) | Primeira Liga | Draw | 4.28 | 32.7% | lost | 2026-04-12 09:17:00 | pre-kickoff |
| 240 | 2026-04-12 | Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs CD Nacional (2-0) | Primeira Liga | CD Nacional Win | 16.68 | 10.0% | lost | 2026-04-12 09:17:00 | pre-kickoff |
| 239 | 2026-04-12 | Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs CD Nacional (2-0) | Primeira Liga | Draw | 7.86 | 25.9% | lost | 2026-04-12 09:17:00 | pre-kickoff |
| 238 | 2026-04-12 | Sporting Clube de Braga vs FC Arouca (1-0) | Primeira Liga | Draw | 4.33 | 32.4% | lost | 2026-04-12 09:17:00 | pre-kickoff |
| 237 | 2026-04-12 | FC Alverca vs Casa Pia AC (3-1) | Primeira Liga | Draw | 3.21 | 37.7% | lost | 2026-04-12 09:17:00 | pre-kickoff |
| 236 | 2026-04-12 | PEC Zwolle vs SBV Excelsior (2-2) | Eredivisie | Draw | 3.45 | 35.3% | won | 2026-04-12 09:17:00 | pre-kickoff |
| 235 | 2026-04-12 | NEC vs Feyenoord Rotterdam (1-1) | Eredivisie | Draw | 3.65 | 34.2% | won | 2026-04-12 09:17:00 | pre-kickoff |