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Public pick log

Settled picks only, newest first

Only picks that have been settled appear here, so nothing on this page is a live pick. Wins, losses and voids are all listed. Picks issued after kick-off, and picks touched by a past settlement repair, are shown and flagged rather than hidden. 18+ | Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future results.

Summary

As of 2026-11-03, excluding picks issued after kick-off: 551 settled picks (286 won, 265 lost). Flat 1-unit stake ROI is +1.70% with a 95% interval of -6.9% to +10.3% (normal approximation). The interval includes zero: this is not evidence of an edge.

Closing-line value: 138 picks (25.0%) have a stored closing price; mean difference to close +9.12%. This mostly reflects taking the best price across bookmakers and comparing it with a single closing price that still includes the bookmaker's margin. It is not evidence that the model predicts better than the market.

How we measure this · Model methodology

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1068 picks. Download CSV (rate-limited).

#Match dateMatchLeagueMarketOddsModel prob.OutcomeIssued (UTC)Flags
2342026-04-12Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda (1-1)EredivisieDraw 3.45 35.9% won2026-04-12 09:17:00 pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix
2172026-04-12Sittard vs NAC Breda (1-1)EredivisieSittard Win 2.67 42.0% lost2026-04-12 09:17:00 pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix
2162026-04-12Ath Bilbao vs Villarreal (1-2)La LigaVillarreal Win 3.40 30.0% won2026-04-12 09:17:00 pre-kickoff
2152026-04-12Lech Poznan vs GKS Katowice (3-3)EkstraklasaGKS Katowice Win 5.02 21.0% lost2026-04-05 15:57:15 pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix
2012026-04-12Genoa vs Sassuolo (2-1)Serie ASassuolo Win 3.40 31.8% lost2026-04-05 00:56:26 pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix
2082026-04-11Heracles Almelo vs AFC Ajax (0-3)EredivisieDraw 3.79 29.4% lost2026-04-05 00:56:26 pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix
2072026-04-11FC Groningen vs Go Ahead Eagles (0-0)EredivisieDraw 3.35 31.7% won2026-04-05 00:56:26 pre-kickoff
2062026-04-11Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV (0-2)EredivisieDraw 3.94 29.3% lost2026-04-05 00:56:26 pre-kickoff
2052026-04-11FC Utrecht vs Telstar 1963 (4-1)EredivisieDraw 3.40 32.0% lost2026-04-05 00:56:26 pre-kickoff
2042026-04-11CF Estrela da Amadora vs Sporting Clube de Portugal (0-1)Primeira LigaDraw 5.51 24.5% lost2026-04-05 00:56:26 pre-kickoff
2032026-04-11CD Santa Clara vs Rio Ave FC (0-2)Primeira LigaDraw 3.11 35.2% lost2026-04-05 00:56:26 pre-kickoff
2022026-04-11AVS vs Vitória SC (1-1)Primeira LigaDraw 3.45 32.1% won2026-04-05 00:56:26 pre-kickoff
1762026-04-11Elche vs Valencia (1-0)La LigaElche Win 2.23 46.2% won2026-04-04 12:06:25 pre-kickoff
1572026-04-11Wolfsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt (1-2)BundesligaEintracht Frankfurt Win 2.59 39.4% won2026-04-04 10:53:10 pre-kickoff
1482026-04-11AC Milan vs Udinese (0-3)Serie AUdinese Win 6.88 16.9% won2026-04-04 10:28:39 pre-kickoff
2002026-04-10Augsburg vs Hoffenheim (2-2)BundesligaHoffenheim Win 2.08 48.9% lost2026-04-04 21:43:22 pre-kickoff
1782026-04-10FC Twente '65 vs FC Volendam (2-1)EredivisieFC Volendam Win 8.84 12.8% lost2026-04-04 12:06:25 pre-kickoff
1742026-04-10FC Famalicão vs Moreirense FC (1-1)Primeira LigaDraw 3.60 32.1% won2026-04-04 10:53:10 pre-kickoff
1732026-04-10FC Twente '65 vs FC Volendam (2-1)EredivisieDraw 5.80 23.3% lost2026-04-04 10:53:10 pre-kickoff
1562026-04-09Freiburg vs Celta Vigo (3-0)UEFA Europa League - Quarter-finalsCelta Vigo Win 3.19 32.2% lost2026-04-04 10:53:10 pre-kickoff
1722026-04-06Casa Pia AC vs Sport Lisboa e Benfica (1-1)Primeira LigaDraw 5.09 26.5% won2026-04-04 10:53:10 pre-kickoff
1712026-04-06Casa Pia AC vs Sport Lisboa e Benfica (1-1)Primeira LigaCasa Pia AC Win 13.87 9.5% lost2026-04-04 10:53:10 pre-kickoff
1702026-04-06FC Arouca vs GD Estoril Praia (3-2)Primeira LigaDraw 3.41 33.9% lost2026-04-04 10:53:10 pre-kickoff
1552026-04-06Pogon Szczecin vs Legia (0-2)EkstraklasaPogon Szczecin Win 2.59 39.6% lost2026-04-04 10:53:10 pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix
1462026-04-06Napoli vs AC Milan (1-0)Serie AAC Milan Win 2.81 36.5% lost2026-03-31 21:06:36 pre-kickoff
1442026-04-06Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin (1-1)EkstraklasaRadomiak Radom Win 2.03 52.1% lost2026-03-30 20:02:04 pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix
2142026-04-05Valencia vs Celta Vigo (2-3)La LigaValencia Win 19.62 9.5% lost2026-04-05 15:57:15 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
2132026-04-05Metz vs Nantes (0-0)Ligue 1Nantes Win 5.41 21.9% lost2026-04-05 15:57:15 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
2122026-04-05Go Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle (5-0)EredivisiePEC Zwolle Win 98.02 4.9% lost2026-04-05 12:57:01 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
2112026-04-05G.A. Eagles vs Zwolle (5-0)EredivisieZwolle Win 98.02 5.4% lost2026-04-05 12:57:01 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
2102026-04-05G.A. Eagles vs Zwolle (5-0)EredivisieDraw 37.26 5.3% lost2026-04-05 12:57:01 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
2092026-04-05FC Volendam vs Feyenoord (0-0)EredivisieFC Volendam Win 6.58 17.1% lost2026-04-05 09:56:52 pre-kickoff
1692026-04-05NAC Breda vs Sparta Rotterdam (0-0)EredivisieDraw 3.39 34.1% won2026-04-04 10:53:10 pre-kickoff
1682026-04-05SC Heerenveen vs Heracles Almelo (4-1)EredivisieDraw 5.21 26.3% lost2026-04-04 10:53:10 pre-kickoff
1672026-04-05FC Volendam vs Feyenoord Rotterdam (0-0)EredivisieDraw 4.86 27.4% won2026-04-04 10:53:10 pre-kickoff
1662026-04-05Go Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle (5-0)EredivisieDraw 3.69 32.3% lost2026-04-04 10:53:10 pre-kickoff
1542026-04-05Monaco vs Marseille (2-1)Ligue 1Marseille Win 3.24 31.6% lost2026-04-04 10:53:10 pre-kickoff
1472026-04-05Oviedo vs Sevilla (1-0)La LigaSevilla Win 2.62 38.8% lost2026-04-01 16:25:12 pre-kickoff
1452026-04-05Cremonese vs Bologna (1-2)Serie ABologna Win 1.98 53.3% won2026-03-31 21:06:36 pre-kickoff
1432026-04-05Le Havre vs Auxerre (1-1)Ligue 1Le Havre Win 2.42 42.6% lost2026-03-30 20:02:04 pre-kickoff
1422026-04-05Lorient vs Paris FC (1-1)Ligue 1Lorient Win 2.35 43.2% lost2026-03-30 20:02:04 pre-kickoff
1412026-04-05Angers vs Lyon (0-0)Ligue 1Angers Win 4.80 22.5% lost2026-03-30 20:02:04 pre-kickoff
1992026-04-04Telstar 1963 vs FC Groningen (0-2)EredivisieTelstar 1963 Win 441.02 4.3% lost2026-04-04 18:42:46 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
1982026-04-04Moreirense FC vs Sporting Clube de Braga (0-1)Primeira LigaMoreirense FC Win 46.08 5.7% lost2026-04-04 18:42:46 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
1972026-04-04Rio Ave FC vs FC Alverca (1-2)Primeira LigaRio Ave FC Win 19.80 7.9% lost2026-04-04 18:42:46 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
1962026-04-04Telstar vs Groningen (0-2)EredivisieDraw 10.80 11.1% lost2026-04-04 18:42:46 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
1952026-04-04Telstar vs Groningen (0-2)EredivisieTelstar Win 441.02 8.2% lost2026-04-04 18:42:46 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
1942026-04-04AZ Alkmaar vs Sittard (2-0)EredivisieDraw 33.34 5.7% lost2026-04-04 18:42:46 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
1932026-04-04Strasbourg vs Nice (3-1)Ligue 1Nice Win 58.82 3.7% lost2026-04-04 15:42:38 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary); repaired by settlement fix
1922026-04-04Strasbourg vs Nice (3-1)Ligue 1Draw 23.54 6.5% lost2026-04-04 15:42:38 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary); repaired by settlement fix

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