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Public pick log

Settled picks only, newest first

Only picks that have been settled appear here, so nothing on this page is a live pick. Wins, losses and voids are all listed. Picks issued after kick-off, and picks touched by a past settlement repair, are shown and flagged rather than hidden. 18+ | Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future results.

Summary

As of 2026-11-03, excluding picks issued after kick-off: 551 settled picks (286 won, 265 lost). Flat 1-unit stake ROI is +1.70% with a 95% interval of -6.9% to +10.3% (normal approximation). The interval includes zero: this is not evidence of an edge.

Closing-line value: 138 picks (25.0%) have a stored closing price; mean difference to close +9.12%. This mostly reflects taking the best price across bookmakers and comparing it with a single closing price that still includes the bookmaker's margin. It is not evidence that the model predicts better than the market.

How we measure this · Model methodology

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1068 picks. Download CSV (rate-limited).

#Match dateMatchLeagueMarketOddsModel prob.OutcomeIssued (UTC)Flags
1912026-04-04PSV vs FC Utrecht (4-3)EredivisieFC Utrecht Win 15.70 8.6% lost2026-04-04 15:42:38 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary); repaired by settlement fix
1902026-04-04Freiburg vs Bayern Munich (2-3)BundesligaFreiburg Win 11.78 9.9% lost2026-04-04 15:33:18 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
1892026-04-04Hamburger SV vs Augsburg (1-1)BundesligaAugsburg Win 9.57 12.8% lost2026-04-04 15:33:18 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
1882026-04-04CD Nacional vs CF Estrela da Amadora (2-0)Primeira LigaCF Estrela da Amadora Win 8.83 13.6% lost2026-04-04 15:02:21 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
1872026-04-04Mallorca vs Real Madrid (2-1)La LigaReal Madrid Win 2.67 42.8% lost2026-04-04 15:02:21 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary); repaired by settlement fix
1862026-04-04Hoffenheim vs Mainz (1-1)BundesligaHoffenheim Win 2.67 43.4% lost2026-04-04 15:02:21 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
1852026-04-04Freiburg vs Bayern Munich (2-3)BundesligaBayern Munich Win 4.92 31.8% won2026-04-04 15:02:21 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary); repaired by settlement fix
1842026-04-04B. Monchengladbach vs Heidenheim (2-2)BundesligaB. Monchengladbach Win 6.88 25.0% lost2026-04-04 15:02:21 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
1832026-04-04Bayer Leverkusen vs Wolfsburg (4-3)BundesligaWolfsburg Win 22.56 5.7% lost2026-04-04 15:02:21 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
1822026-04-04Hamburger SV vs Augsburg (1-1)BundesligaHamburger SV Win 7.62 24.7% lost2026-04-04 15:02:21 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
1812026-04-04Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig (0-2)BundesligaDraw 14.72 10.2% lost2026-04-04 15:02:21 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
1802026-04-04Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig (0-2)BundesligaWerder Bremen Win 64.70 6.1% lost2026-04-04 15:02:21 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary)
1792026-04-04Real Sociedad vs Levante (2-0)La LigaLevante Win 14.72 11.2% lost2026-04-04 12:33:11 issued after kick-off (excluded from summary); repaired by settlement fix
1772026-04-04FC Porto vs FC Famalicão (2-2)Primeira LigaFC Famalicão Win 8.19 14.3% lost2026-04-04 12:06:25 pre-kickoff
1752026-04-04Excelsior vs Nijmegen (0-2)EredivisieNijmegen Win 1.97 52.7% won2026-04-04 12:06:25 pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix
1652026-04-04FC Porto vs FC Famalicão (2-2)Primeira LigaDraw 4.55 28.6% won2026-04-04 10:53:10 pre-kickoff
1642026-04-04AFC Ajax vs FC Twente '65 (1-2)EredivisieDraw 3.67 32.4% lost2026-04-04 10:53:10 pre-kickoff
1632026-04-04SBV Excelsior vs NEC (0-2)EredivisieDraw 3.90 31.3% lost2026-04-04 10:53:10 pre-kickoff
1622026-04-04Moreirense FC vs Sporting Clube de Braga (0-1)Primeira LigaDraw 4.23 29.8% lost2026-04-04 10:53:10 pre-kickoff
1612026-04-04Rio Ave FC vs FC Alverca (1-2)Primeira LigaDraw 3.21 35.6% lost2026-04-04 10:53:10 pre-kickoff
1602026-04-04Telstar 1963 vs FC Groningen (0-2)EredivisieDraw 3.69 32.3% lost2026-04-04 10:53:10 pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix
1592026-04-04CD Nacional vs CF Estrela da Amadora (2-0)Primeira LigaDraw 3.54 33.4% lost2026-04-04 10:53:10 pre-kickoff
1582026-04-04PSV vs FC Utrecht (4-3)EredivisieDraw 4.51 28.6% lost2026-04-04 10:53:10 pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix
1532026-04-04AZ Alkmaar vs Sittard (2-0)EredivisieSittard Win 8.94 13.9% lost2026-04-04 10:53:10 pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix
1522026-04-04PSV vs Utrecht (4-3)EredivisieUtrecht Win 6.42 17.5% lost2026-04-04 10:53:10 pre-kickoff
1512026-04-04Stuttgart vs Dortmund (0-2)BundesligaDortmund Win 2.89 35.5% won2026-04-04 10:53:10 pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix
1502026-04-04Atl. Madrid vs Barcelona (1-2)La LigaAtl. Madrid Win 2.96 35.9% lost2026-04-04 10:53:10 pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix
1492026-04-04Lille vs Lens (3-0)Ligue 1Lens Win 2.49 41.0% lost2026-04-04 10:53:10 pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix
1402026-04-04Sassuolo vs Cagliari (2-1)Serie ACagliari Win 4.56 26.0% lost2026-03-30 20:02:04 pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix
1392026-04-04Strasbourg vs Nice (3-1)Ligue 1Strasbourg Win 1.87 57.9% won2026-03-30 20:02:04 pre-kickoff
1382026-04-04Brest vs Rennes (3-4)Ligue 1Brest Win 3.40 35.2% lost2026-03-30 20:02:04 pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix
1372026-04-04Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig (1-2)BundesligaRB Leipzig Win 2.07 52.1% won2026-03-30 20:02:04 pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix
1362026-03-26Gibraltar vs Latvia (0-1)UEFA Nations League - Play-offs C/DDraw 3.79 34.2% lost2026-03-25 18:40:32 pre-kickoff
1352026-03-26Gibraltar vs Latvia (0-1)UEFA Nations League - Play-offs C/DGibraltar Win 8.06 14.9% lost2026-03-25 18:40:32 pre-kickoff
1342026-03-26Malta vs Luxembourg (0-1)UEFA Nations League - Play-offs C/DDraw 2.94 39.6% lost2026-03-25 18:40:32 pre-kickoff
1322026-03-26Treasure Beach vs Arnett Gardens (0-0)Premier LeagueOver 3.5 goals 3.70 40.0% lost2026-03-25 16:55:37 pre-kickoff
1312026-03-26Treasure Beach vs Arnett Gardens (0-0)Premier LeagueBTTS 1.83 58.7% lost2026-03-25 16:55:37 pre-kickoff
1302026-03-26Treasure Beach vs Arnett Gardens (0-0)Premier LeagueOver 2.5 goals 2.05 61.2% lost2026-03-25 16:55:37 pre-kickoff
1332026-03-25Harbour View vs Racing United (2-2)Premier LeagueOver 2.5 goals 1.80 57.2% won2026-03-25 18:40:32 pre-kickoff
1292026-03-25Harbour View vs Racing United (2-2)Premier LeagueOver 3.5 goals 2.90 35.7% won2026-03-25 16:55:37 pre-kickoff
1272026-03-24Mount Pleasant vs Portmore (4-1)Premier LeagueOver 2.5 goals 2.70 41.4% won2026-03-22 17:20:41 pre-kickoff
1262026-03-23Waterhouse vs Cavalier (2-1)Premier LeagueCavalier Win 2.59 39.9% lost2026-03-22 17:20:41 pre-kickoff
1282026-03-22Racing United vs Tivoli (0-0)Premier LeagueRacing United Win 1.93 53.5% lost2026-03-22 17:21:11 pre-kickoff
1252026-03-22Nantes vs Strasbourg (2-3)Ligue 1Strasbourg Win 2.06 50.5% won2026-03-19 17:37:25 pre-kickoff
1222026-03-22Korona Kielce vs Arka Gdynia (3-0)EkstraklasaKorona Kielce Win 1.82 57.0% won2026-03-17 16:32:43 pre-kickoff
1212026-03-22Lech Poznan vs Termalica B-B. (4-1)EkstraklasaOver 3.5 goals 2.00 57.2% won2026-03-17 16:32:43 pre-kickoff
1202026-03-22Lech Poznan vs Termalica B-B. (4-1)EkstraklasaBTTS 1.55 72.0% won2026-03-17 16:32:43 pre-kickoff
1192026-03-22Lech Poznan vs Termalica B-B. (4-1)EkstraklasaOver 2.5 goals 1.40 75.8% won2026-03-17 16:32:43 pre-kickoff
1182026-03-22Lech Poznan vs Termalica B-B. (4-1)EkstraklasaTermalica B-B. Win 6.63 19.6% lost2026-03-17 16:32:43 pre-kickoff
1172026-03-22Feyenoord vs Ajax (1-1)EredivisieOver 3.5 goals 2.25 63.4% lost2026-03-17 16:32:43 pre-kickoff

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