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Public pick log

Settled picks only, newest first

Only picks that have been settled appear here, so nothing on this page is a live pick. Wins, losses and voids are all listed. Picks issued after kick-off, and picks touched by a past settlement repair, are shown and flagged rather than hidden. 18+ | Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future results.

Summary

As of 2026-11-03, excluding picks issued after kick-off: 551 settled picks (286 won, 265 lost). Flat 1-unit stake ROI is +1.70% with a 95% interval of -6.9% to +10.3% (normal approximation). The interval includes zero: this is not evidence of an edge.

Closing-line value: 138 picks (25.0%) have a stored closing price; mean difference to close +9.12%. This mostly reflects taking the best price across bookmakers and comparing it with a single closing price that still includes the bookmaker's margin. It is not evidence that the model predicts better than the market.

How we measure this · Model methodology

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1068 picks. Download CSV (rate-limited).

#Match dateMatchLeagueMarketOddsModel prob.OutcomeIssued (UTC)Flags
672026-03-21Leeds vs Brentford (0-0)Premier LeagueOver 2.5 goals 1.85 56.4% lost2026-03-16 21:38:57 pre-kickoff
662026-03-20Heracles vs Excelsior (1-1)EredivisieOver 3.5 goals 2.75 50.7% lost2026-03-16 21:38:57 pre-kickoff
652026-03-20Heracles vs Excelsior (1-1)EredivisieBTTS 1.55 70.6% won2026-03-16 21:38:57 pre-kickoff
642026-03-20Heracles vs Excelsior (1-1)EredivisieOver 2.5 goals 1.70 70.4% lost2026-03-16 21:38:57 pre-kickoff
632026-03-20Genoa vs Udinese (0-2)Serie AOver 3.5 goals 4.75 28.1% lost2026-03-16 21:38:57 pre-kickoff
622026-03-20Genoa vs Udinese (0-2)Serie ABTTS 2.10 53.5% lost2026-03-16 21:38:57 pre-kickoff
612026-03-20Genoa vs Udinese (0-2)Serie AOver 2.5 goals 2.45 49.2% lost2026-03-16 21:38:57 pre-kickoff
602026-03-20RB Leipzig vs Hoffenheim (5-0)BundesligaOver 3.5 goals 2.00 53.4% won2026-03-16 21:38:57 pre-kickoff
592026-03-20RB Leipzig vs Hoffenheim (5-0)BundesligaHoffenheim Win 3.35 32.5% lost2026-03-16 21:38:57 pre-kickoff
582026-03-19FC Porto vs Stuttgart (2-0)UEFA Europa League - 1/8-finalsFC Porto Win 2.39 47.6% won2026-03-16 21:38:57 pre-kickoff
572026-03-19Betis vs Panathinaikos (4-0)UEFA Europa League - 1/8-finalsOver 3.5 goals 3.00 36.0% won2026-03-16 21:38:57 pre-kickoff
562026-03-19Betis vs Panathinaikos (4-0)UEFA Europa League - 1/8-finalsBTTS 2.00 57.6% lost2026-03-16 21:38:57 pre-kickoff
552026-03-19Betis vs Panathinaikos (4-0)UEFA Europa League - 1/8-finalsOver 2.5 goals 1.80 57.9% won2026-03-16 21:38:57 pre-kickoff
542026-03-19Betis vs Panathinaikos (4-0)UEFA Europa League - 1/8-finalsPanathinaikos Win 8.06 18.7% lost2026-03-16 21:38:57 pre-kickoff
532026-03-19Aston Villa vs Lille (2-0)UEFA Europa League - 1/8-finalsLille Win 4.48 25.7% lost2026-03-16 21:38:57 pre-kickoff
522026-03-19Midtjylland vs Nottingham (1-2)UEFA Europa League - 1/8-finalsMidtjylland Win 3.35 38.7% lost2026-03-16 21:38:57 pre-kickoff
512026-03-18Braga vs Ferencvaros (4-0)UEFA Europa League - 1/8-finalsOver 3.5 goals 3.00 34.9% won2026-03-16 21:38:57 pre-kickoff
502026-03-18Liverpool vs Galatasaray (4-0)UEFA Champions League - 1/8-finalsOver 3.5 goals 1.85 55.9% won2026-03-16 21:38:57 pre-kickoff
452026-03-18Tottenham vs Atl. Madrid (3-2)UEFA Champions League - 1/8-finalsAtl. Madrid Win 2.57 41.7% lost2026-03-13 19:41:49 pre-kickoff
442026-03-18Liverpool vs Galatasaray (4-0)UEFA Champions League - 1/8-finalsBTTS 1.65 64.4% lost2026-03-13 19:41:49 pre-kickoff
432026-03-18Liverpool vs Galatasaray (4-0)UEFA Champions League - 1/8-finalsGalatasaray Win 9.33 11.1% lost2026-03-13 19:41:49 pre-kickoff
422026-03-18Bayern Munich vs Atalanta (4-1)UEFA Champions League - 1/8-finalsAtalanta Win 8.35 13.1% lost2026-03-13 19:41:49 pre-kickoff
412026-03-18Barcelona vs Newcastle (7-2)UEFA Champions League - 1/8-finalsBarcelona Win 1.59 65.7% won2026-03-13 19:41:49 pre-kickoff
402026-03-18Braga vs Ferencvaros (4-0)UEFA Europa League - 1/8-finalsBTTS 1.91 54.7% lost2026-03-13 19:41:49 pre-kickoff
942026-03-17Arsenal vs Bayer Leverkusen (2-0)UEFA Champions League - 1/8-finalsOver 3.5 goals 2.80 38.1% lost2026-03-17 16:32:43 pre-kickoff
492026-03-17Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice (2-1)EkstraklasaOver 3.5 goals 2.65 50.5% lost2026-03-16 21:38:57 pre-kickoff
482026-03-17Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice (2-1)EkstraklasaBTTS 1.60 68.7% won2026-03-16 21:38:57 pre-kickoff
472026-03-17Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice (2-1)EkstraklasaOver 2.5 goals 1.65 70.5% won2026-03-16 21:38:57 pre-kickoff
462026-03-17Sporting CP vs Bodo/Glimt (5-0)UEFA Champions League - 1/8-finalsOver 3.5 goals 1.95 53.4% won2026-03-16 21:38:57 pre-kickoff
392026-03-17Manchester City vs Real Madrid (1-2)UEFA Champions League - 1/8-finalsReal Madrid Win 4.92 22.6% won2026-03-13 19:41:49 pre-kickoff
382026-03-17Chelsea vs PSG (0-3)UEFA Champions League - 1/8-finalsPSG Win 2.86 37.0% won2026-03-13 19:41:49 pre-kickoff
372026-03-17Arsenal vs Bayer Leverkusen (2-0)UEFA Champions League - 1/8-finalsBTTS 1.95 53.7% lost2026-03-13 19:41:49 pre-kickoff
362026-03-15Arka Gdynia vs Widzew Lodz (0-0)EkstraklasaBTTS 1.95 55.5% lost2026-03-13 19:41:49 pre-kickoff
352026-03-15Arka Gdynia vs Widzew Lodz (0-0)EkstraklasaArka Gdynia Win 3.06 35.7% lost2026-03-13 19:41:49 pre-kickoff
342026-03-15AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles (4-0)EredivisieBTTS 1.73 63.7% lost2026-03-13 19:41:49 pre-kickoff
332026-03-15Feyenoord vs Excelsior (2-1)EredivisieBTTS 1.70 65.3% won2026-03-13 19:41:49 pre-kickoff
322026-03-15G.A. Eagles vs NAC Breda (6-0)EredivisieG.A. Eagles Win 2.18 46.2% won2026-03-13 19:41:49 pre-kickoff
312026-03-15Gornik Zabrze vs Rakow (3-1)EkstraklasaBTTS 1.91 58.4% won2026-03-13 19:41:49 pre-kickoff
302026-03-15Zaglebie vs Lech Poznan (0-1)EkstraklasaZaglebie Win 3.69 32.0% lost2026-03-13 19:41:49 pre-kickoff
292026-03-15Nottingham vs Fulham (0-0)Premier LeagueFulham Win 3.16 31.8% lost2026-03-13 19:41:49 pre-kickoff
282026-03-15Liverpool vs Tottenham (1-1)Premier LeagueBTTS 1.73 60.4% won2026-03-13 19:41:49 pre-kickoff
272026-03-15Liverpool vs Tottenham (1-1)Premier LeagueTottenham Win 8.35 17.3% lost2026-03-13 19:41:49 pre-kickoff
262026-03-15Liverpool vs Tottenham (1-1)Premier LeagueDraw 5.70 17.8% won2026-03-13 19:41:49 pre-kickoff
252026-03-15Freiburg vs Union Berlin (0-1)BundesligaFreiburg Win 2.08 49.0% lost2026-03-13 19:41:49 pre-kickoff
242026-03-15Sassuolo vs Bologna (0-1)Serie ABologna Win 2.76 41.1% won2026-03-13 19:41:49 pre-kickoff
232026-03-15Lazio vs AC Milan (1-0)Serie AAC Milan Win 1.93 53.3% lost2026-03-13 19:41:49 pre-kickoff
222026-03-15Pisa vs Cagliari (3-1)Serie ACagliari Win 2.86 38.6% lost2026-03-13 19:41:49 pre-kickoff
212026-03-15Verona vs Genoa (0-2)Serie ABTTS 2.05 50.9% lost2026-03-13 19:41:49 pre-kickoff
202026-03-15Mallorca vs Espanyol (2-1)La LigaBTTS 1.95 56.2% won2026-03-13 19:41:49 pre-kickoff
192026-03-15Rennes vs Lille (1-2)Ligue 1BTTS 1.67 60.7% won2026-03-13 19:41:49 pre-kickoff

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