Public pick log
Settled picks only, newest first
Only picks that have been settled appear here, so nothing on this page is a live pick. Wins, losses and voids are all listed. Picks issued after kick-off, and picks touched by a past settlement repair, are shown and flagged rather than hidden. 18+ | Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future results.
Summary
As of 2026-11-03, excluding picks issued after kick-off: 551 settled picks (286 won, 265 lost). Flat 1-unit stake ROI is +1.70% with a 95% interval of -6.9% to +10.3% (normal approximation). The interval includes zero: this is not evidence of an edge.
Closing-line value: 138 picks (25.0%) have a stored closing price; mean difference to close +9.12%. This mostly reflects taking the best price across bookmakers and comparing it with a single closing price that still includes the bookmaker's margin. It is not evidence that the model predicts better than the market.
How we measure this · Model methodology
Log
1068 picks. Download CSV (rate-limited).
| # | Match date | Match | League | Market | Odds | Model prob. | Outcome | Issued (UTC) | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 782 | 2026-09-07 | Corinthians vs Chapecoense-SC (1-2) | Serie A | Corinthians Win | 1.98 | 52.9% | lost | 2026-09-06 23:51:48 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 777 | 2026-09-07 | Malmo FF vs AIK (0-0) | Allsvenskan | BTTS | 1.58 | 64.7% | lost | 2026-09-06 14:50:21 | pre-kickoff |
| 770 | 2026-09-07 | Cruz Azul vs Santos Laguna (1-0) | Liga MX | BTTS | 1.68 | 61.6% | lost | 2026-09-05 18:55:24 | pre-kickoff |
| 751 | 2026-09-07 | Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock (1-1) | Ekstraklasa | Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 58.9% | lost | 2026-09-02 22:07:00 | pre-kickoff |
| 780 | 2026-09-06 | Cruzeiro vs Athletico-PR (3-1) | Serie A | Cruzeiro Win | 1.69 | 70.0% | won | 2026-09-06 20:51:17 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 776 | 2026-09-06 | Den Haag vs Sittard (2-3) | Eredivisie | Sittard Win | 3.47 | 30.5% | won | 2026-09-06 14:50:21 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 775 | 2026-09-06 | Huachipato vs Colo Colo (0-0) | Primera División | BTTS | 1.62 | 63.2% | lost | 2026-09-06 08:49:04 | pre-kickoff |
| 774 | 2026-09-06 | Tigres UANL vs Necaxa (1-1) | Liga MX | Tigres UANL Win | 3.40 | 32.8% | lost | 2026-09-06 02:48:01 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 771 | 2026-09-06 | Orgryte vs Hammarby (1-1) | Allsvenskan | BTTS | 1.78 | 57.3% | won | 2026-09-05 20:46:47 | pre-kickoff |
| 769 | 2026-09-06 | Espanyol vs Sevilla (1-1) | La Liga | BTTS | 2.08 | 48.9% | won | 2026-09-05 18:55:24 | pre-kickoff |
| 768 | 2026-09-06 | Birmingham vs Wolves (2-2) | Championship | BTTS | 1.83 | 59.9% | won | 2026-09-05 18:55:24 | pre-kickoff |
| 766 | 2026-09-06 | Kashiwa Reysol vs Yokohama F. Marinos (0-2) | J1 League | BTTS | 2.08 | 53.6% | lost | 2026-09-05 13:20:07 | pre-kickoff |
| 761 | 2026-09-06 | Huachipato vs Colo Colo (0-0) | Primera División | Colo Colo Win | 1.95 | 52.8% | lost | 2026-09-04 13:15:16 | pre-kickoff |
| 757 | 2026-09-06 | Anderlecht vs Genk (0-0) | First Division A | Over 2.5 goals | 1.71 | 62.2% | lost | 2026-09-03 19:11:22 | pre-kickoff |
| 756 | 2026-09-06 | Sonderjyske vs Horsens (2-5) | Superliga | Horsens Win | 3.45 | 30.4% | won | 2026-09-03 19:11:22 | pre-kickoff |
| 753 | 2026-09-06 | Kashima Antlers vs Urawa Reds (0-1) | J1 League | BTTS | 1.70 | 63.4% | lost | 2026-09-03 13:10:04 | pre-kickoff |
| 740 | 2026-09-06 | Kashiwa Reysol vs Yokohama F. Marinos (0-2) | J1 League | Over 2.5 goals | 1.69 | 61.9% | lost | 2026-09-01 14:55:30 | pre-kickoff |
| 722 | 2026-09-06 | Everton vs Manchester Utd (2-2) | Premier League | Everton Win | 3.15 | 33.4% | lost | 2026-08-28 10:40:54 | pre-kickoff |
| 767 | 2026-09-05 | Motor Lublin vs Legia (2-3) | Ekstraklasa | Draw | 3.40 | 31.2% | lost | 2026-09-05 18:55:24 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 765 | 2026-09-05 | West Ham vs Derby (3-0) | Championship | BTTS | 1.90 | 56.4% | lost | 2026-09-05 13:20:07 | pre-kickoff |
| 764 | 2026-09-05 | Widzew Lodz vs Radomiak Radom (0-0) | Ekstraklasa | Widzew Lodz Win | 1.80 | 57.9% | lost | 2026-09-05 13:20:07 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 763 | 2026-09-05 | Shandong Taishan vs Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (1-1) | Chinese Super League | Shandong Taishan Win | 1.90 | 53.9% | lost | 2026-09-05 13:20:07 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 762 | 2026-09-05 | Widzew Lodz vs Radomiak Radom (0-0) | Ekstraklasa | Over 2.5 goals | 1.74 | 58.6% | lost | 2026-09-05 07:19:00 | pre-kickoff |
| 760 | 2026-09-05 | KV Mechelen vs Westerlo (0-4) | First Division A | BTTS | 1.76 | 59.1% | lost | 2026-09-04 07:13:58 | pre-kickoff |
| 759 | 2026-09-05 | Dalian Yingbo vs Qingdao Hainiu (2-1) | Chinese Super League | BTTS | 1.98 | 51.4% | won | 2026-09-04 07:13:58 | pre-kickoff |
| 755 | 2026-09-05 | Juarez vs Pachuca (0-2) | Liga MX | Pachuca Win | 2.10 | 49.2% | won | 2026-09-03 19:11:22 | pre-kickoff |
| 752 | 2026-09-05 | KV Mechelen vs Westerlo (0-4) | First Division A | Over 2.5 goals | 1.66 | 63.3% | won | 2026-09-03 07:08:45 | pre-kickoff |
| 750 | 2026-09-05 | Sporting CP vs Nacional (2-0) | Primeira Liga | BTTS | 1.91 | 53.3% | lost | 2026-09-02 22:07:00 | pre-kickoff |
| 749 | 2026-09-05 | Alverca vs Braga (1-2) | Primeira Liga | BTTS | 1.81 | 58.9% | won | 2026-09-02 22:07:00 | pre-kickoff |
| 748 | 2026-09-05 | Burnley vs Bristol City (1-2) | Championship | BTTS | 1.76 | 60.9% | won | 2026-09-02 22:07:00 | pre-kickoff |
| 747 | 2026-09-05 | Gimnasia Mendoza vs Boca Juniors (2-2) | Liga Profesional Argentina - Clausura | Gimnasia Mendoza Win | 3.50 | 30.3% | lost | 2026-09-02 14:59:47 | pre-kickoff |
| 746 | 2026-09-05 | Avispa Fukuoka vs Mito (1-1) | J1 League | BTTS | 1.90 | 55.2% | won | 2026-09-02 14:59:47 | pre-kickoff |
| 743 | 2026-09-05 | West Ham vs Derby (3-0) | Championship | Over 2.5 goals | 1.71 | 60.6% | won | 2026-09-01 23:56:48 | pre-kickoff |
| 739 | 2026-09-05 | Erzurumspor vs Konyaspor (1-0) | Süper Lig | Konyaspor Win | 3.25 | 32.5% | lost | 2026-09-01 14:55:30 | pre-kickoff |
| 731 | 2026-09-05 | Newcastle vs Bournemouth (2-2) | Premier League | Over 2.5 goals | 1.66 | 61.5% | won | 2026-09-01 02:53:19 | pre-kickoff |
| 758 | 2026-09-04 | Lyon vs Auxerre (3-1) | Ligue 1 | BTTS | 1.86 | 54.8% | won | 2026-09-04 07:13:58 | pre-kickoff |
| 742 | 2026-09-04 | Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice (3-0) | Ekstraklasa | BTTS | 1.51 | 67.2% | lost | 2026-09-01 20:56:24 | pre-kickoff |
| 730 | 2026-09-04 | Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice (3-0) | Ekstraklasa | Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 63.0% | won | 2026-09-01 02:53:19 | pre-kickoff |
| 745 | 2026-09-02 | Burnley vs Middlesbrough (1-1) | Championship | Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 61.6% | lost | 2026-09-02 08:58:34 | pre-kickoff |
| 744 | 2026-09-02 | Burnley vs Middlesbrough (1-1) | Championship | BTTS | 1.68 | 60.7% | won | 2026-09-02 02:57:30 | pre-kickoff |
| 741 | 2026-09-02 | West Brom vs Charlton (1-1) | Championship | BTTS | 1.96 | 53.0% | won | 2026-09-01 20:56:24 | pre-kickoff |
| 729 | 2026-09-01 | Stoke vs Norwich (1-0) | Championship | Stoke Win | 3.35 | 31.4% | won | 2026-09-01 02:53:19 | pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix |
| 728 | 2026-09-01 | Preston vs Bristol City (1-3) | Championship | BTTS | 1.76 | 58.0% | won | 2026-09-01 02:53:19 | pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix |
| 727 | 2026-09-01 | Lincoln vs Blackburn (0-0) | Championship | BTTS | 1.76 | 58.0% | lost | 2026-09-01 02:53:19 | pre-kickoff; repaired by settlement fix |
| 726 | 2026-08-30 | Colorado Rapids vs Real Salt Lake (1-0) | MLS - Regular season | Colorado Rapids Win | 1.98 | 51.8% | won | 2026-08-30 01:48:18 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 700 | 2026-08-30 | New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union (1-3) | MLS - Regular season | BTTS | 1.57 | 66.4% | won | 2026-08-16 05:36:50 | pre-kickoff |
| 699 | 2026-08-30 | New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union (1-3) | MLS - Regular season | Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 65.0% | won | 2026-08-16 02:36:01 | pre-kickoff |
| 724 | 2026-08-29 | Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam (2-1) | Eredivisie | Sparta Rotterdam Win | 3.17 | 33.2% | lost | 2026-08-29 10:45:45 | pre-kickoff |
| 723 | 2026-08-29 | Union de Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin (4-1) | Liga Profesional Argentina - Clausura | Union de Santa Fe Win | 1.93 | 64.4% | won | 2026-08-28 22:43:23 | issued after kick-off (excluded from summary) |
| 721 | 2026-08-29 | Galatasaray vs Goztepe (3-2) | Süper Lig | Over 2.5 goals | 1.69 | 65.4% | won | 2026-08-28 10:40:54 | pre-kickoff |